M25 Valencia: Ignacio Parisca vs Eric Vanshelboim

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Ignacio Parisca (67%) · Ignacio Parisca at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Ignacio Parisca>99¢Eric Vanshelboim<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ignacio Parisca

Consensus Traders

Ignacio Parisca 67%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$227.74

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 100¢

+49% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralIgnacio Parisca at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ignacio Parisca

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ignacio Parisca100%

Eric Vanshelboim0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eric Vanshelboim2 traders

Total Value$744.24

Total Shares824

Combined PnL-$11.81

Ignacio Parisca4 traders

Total Value$797.84

Total Shares798

Combined PnL+$239.55

Eric Vanshelboim — 33%Ignacio Parisca — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Eric Vanshelboimavg 59.6¢	$740.53	$662.62	-$77.91	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
FL Flaznorp	Ignacio Pariscaavg 75.9¢	$252.67	$319.84	+$67.17	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
RN1	Ignacio Pariscaavg 48¢	$158.45	$301.99	+$143.54	53% 60045-52422 (112467)
38 38791873984189	Ignacio Pariscaavg 84.9¢	$145.03	$170.8	+$25.77	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Eric Vanshelboimavg 9.4¢	$15.52	$81.62	+$66.1	53% 3361-2944 (6305)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Ignacio Pariscaavg 37¢	$2.14	$5.21	+$3.07	47% 11065-12394 (23459)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Eric Vanshelboim

Invested

$740.53

Value

$662.62

PnL

-$77.91

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

Flaznorp

Ignacio Parisca

Invested

$252.67

Value

$319.84

PnL

+$67.17

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

RN1

Ignacio Parisca

Invested

$158.45

Value

$301.99

PnL

+$143.54

Record

53%

60045-52422 (112467)

38791873984189

Ignacio Parisca

Invested

$145.03

Value

$170.8

PnL

+$25.77

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Eric Vanshelboim

Invested

$15.52

Value

$81.62

PnL

+$66.1

Record

53%

3361-2944 (6305)

topdogbigboi<$100

Ignacio Parisca

Invested

$2.14

Value

$5.21

PnL

+$3.07

Record

47%

11065-12394 (23459)

Research grade

NeutralIgnacio Parisca at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Ignacio Parisca

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ignacio Parisca wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.