M15 Antalya: Vladimir Osminkin vs Antoni Fabre

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Antoni Fabre (71%) · Antoni Fabre at 90¢ · $117K held · ends Nov 17

Vladimir Osminkin10¢Antoni Fabre90¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Antoni Fabre

Consensus Traders

Antoni Fabre 71%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$117.3K

Combined PnL

$-17.4K

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 90¢

+19% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAntoni Fabre at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Antoni Fabre

5 of 7 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vladimir Osminkin10%

Antoni Fabre90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Antoni Fabre5 traders

Total Value$82.1K

Total Shares88,115

Combined PnL$-6.2K

Vladimir Osminkin2 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares90,546

Combined PnL$-11.2K

Antoni Fabre — 71%Vladimir Osminkin — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2	Antoni Fabreavg 76.5¢	$63.7K	$55.2K	$-8.4K	48% 66-71 (137)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Antoni Fabreavg 74.8¢	$17.7K	$19.3K	+$1.6K	51% 3670-3496 (7166)
TH ThereAreLevelsARB<$100	Antoni Fabreavg 67.8¢	$22.5K	$13.4K	+$983.31	—
└ Antoni Fabre leg	Antoni Fabreavg 67.8¢	$9.1K	$10.3K	+$1.5K
└ Vladimir Osminkin leg	Vladimir Osminkinavg 26.8¢	$3.6K	$3.1K	-$508.75
CR crazyoddsloverCTR	Vladimir Osminkinavg 22.4¢	$20.2K	$9.0K	$-11.2K	— 6-5 (11)
dips.ARB<$100	Antoni Fabreavg 78.1¢	$13.8K	$8.9K	$-3.2K	42% 189-263 (452)
└ Antoni Fabre leg	Antoni Fabreavg 78.1¢	$6.1K	$7.1K	+$937.11
└ Vladimir Osminkin leg	Vladimir Osminkinavg 29.4¢	$5.4K	$1.8K	$-4.1K
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8	Antoni Fabreavg 66.8¢	$3.3K	$4.1K	+$846.45	— 1-0 (1)
US User7429	Antoni Fabreavg 71¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$40.11	15% 57-311 (368)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Vladimir Osminkinavg 34.7¢	$2.5K	$1.7K	-$775.08	52% 5311-4816 (10127)
└ Antoni Fabre leg	Antoni Fabreavg 80.8¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$46.25
└ Vladimir Osminkin leg	Vladimir Osminkinavg 34.7¢	$1.5K	$662.22	-$821.33
38 38791873984189	Antoni Fabreavg 77.1¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$282.06	48% 733-802 (1535)
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8ARB<$100	Vladimir Osminkinavg 23.9¢	$3.4K	$1.3K	-$157.68	— 0-1 (1)
└ Antoni Fabre leg	Antoni Fabreavg 69.3¢	$527.78	$662.6	+$358.66
└ Vladimir Osminkin leg	Vladimir Osminkinavg 23.9¢	$1.1K	$616.12	-$516.34
LR lryyyARB<$100	Vladimir Osminkinavg 39.4¢	$900.79	$675.06	-$225.72	50% 128-129 (257)
└ Antoni Fabre leg	Antoni Fabreavg 76.8¢	$426.34	$452.33	+$25.99
└ Vladimir Osminkin leg	Vladimir Osminkinavg 39.4¢	$474.45	$222.74	-$251.71
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Vladimir Osminkinavg 40¢	$200	$177.5	-$22.5	22% 81-290 (371)

alpheclabs2

Antoni Fabre

Invested

$63,657.09

Value

$55.2K

PnL

$-8.4K

Record

48%

66-71 (137)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Antoni Fabre

Invested

$17,686.45

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

51%

3670-3496 (7166)

ThereAreLevelsARB<$100

Antoni Fabre

Invested

$22,473.29

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$983.31

Record

—

Both legs:

Antoni Fabre$9,084.2667.8¢+$1.5K

Vladimir Osminkin$3,592.4226.8¢-$508.75

crazyoddsloverCTR

Vladimir Osminkin

Invested

$20,202.44

Value

$9.0K

PnL

$-11.2K

Record

—

6-5 (11)

dips.ARB<$100

Antoni Fabre

Invested

$13,847.96

Value

$8.9K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

42%

189-263 (452)

Both legs:

Antoni Fabre$6,133.9778.1¢+$937.11

Vladimir Osminkin$5,391.2329.4¢$-4.1K

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8

Antoni Fabre

Invested

$3,270.99

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$846.45

Record

—

1-0 (1)

User7429

Antoni Fabre

Invested

$1,898.56

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$40.11

Record

15%

57-311 (368)

cigarettesARB<$100

Vladimir Osminkin

Invested

$2,493.55

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$775.08

Record

52%

5311-4816 (10127)

Both legs:

Antoni Fabre$1,01080.8¢+$46.25

Vladimir Osminkin$1,483.5534.7¢-$821.33

38791873984189

Antoni Fabre

Invested

$2,306.69

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$282.06

Record

48%

733-802 (1535)

0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8ARB<$100

Vladimir Osminkin

Invested

$3,438.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$157.68

Record

—

0-1 (1)

Both legs:

Antoni Fabre$527.7869.3¢+$358.66

Vladimir Osminkin$1,132.4623.9¢-$516.34

lryyyARB<$100

Vladimir Osminkin

Invested

$900.79

Value

$675.06

PnL

-$225.72

Record

50%

128-129 (257)

Both legs:

Antoni Fabre$426.3476.8¢+$25.99

Vladimir Osminkin$474.4539.4¢-$251.71

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Vladimir Osminkin

Invested

$200

Value

$177.5

PnL

-$22.5

Record

22%

81-290 (371)

Research grade

NeutralAntoni Fabre at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Antoni Fabre

5 of 7 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Antoni Fabre wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.