W35 Heraklion: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Laura Svatikova
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ane Mintegi Del Olmo (71%) · Ane Mintegi Del Olmo at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo
7
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 71%
$1.8K
-$127.14
92.7¢ → 95¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralAne Mintegi Del Olmo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Ane Mintegi Del Olmo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 93¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$127.88 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
 RN1 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 92.7¢ | $266.87 | $250.56 | -$16.31 | 57% 3991-3004 (6995) |
TH thestingsnake | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 89.7¢ | $125.6 | $132.72 | +$7.12 | 23% 108-368 (476) |
38 38791873984189 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 93.3¢ | $152.48 | $129.77 | -$18.56 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Laura Svatikovaavg 3.1¢ | $4.46 | $33.07 | +$28.61 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4.04 | -$0.11 | 49% 90-95 (185) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Laura Svatikovaavg 23¢ | $1.38 | $1.38 | +$0 | 27% 142-383 (525) |
Invested
$1,385.03
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$127.88
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
RN1Invested
$266.87
Value
$250.56
PnL
-$16.31
Record
57%
3991-3004 (6995)
Invested
$125.6
Value
$132.72
PnL
+$7.12
Record
23%
108-368 (476)
Invested
$152.48
Value
$129.77
PnL
-$18.56
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
$4.46
Value
$33.07
PnL
+$28.61
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.04
PnL
-$0.11
Record
49%
90-95 (185)
Invested
$1.38
Value
$1.38
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
142-383 (525)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $1.3K
RN1
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $250.56
thestingsnake
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $132.72
38791873984189
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $129.77
cigarettes
CTRLaura Svatikova — $33.07
Eulhunter
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $4.04
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRLaura Svatikova — $1.38