W35 Heraklion: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Lucia Cortez Llorca
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Ane Mintegi Del Olmo (92%) · Ane Mintegi Del Olmo at 92¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo
12
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 92%
$6.3K
$361.77
76.8¢ → 91.5¢
+19% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralAne Mintegi Del Olmo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SL SlickRick123 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 80.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$137.3 | 34% 358-691 (1049) |
CA CandleHammerDrums | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 79.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$50.17 | 49% 505-529 (1034) |
NO NotJump | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 50¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 52% 793-723 (1516) |
 poshposh | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 81.5¢ | $786.76 | $859.53 | +$72.77 | 48% 1068-1142 (2210) |
CI cigarettes | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 87¢ | $435 | $445 | +$10 | 53% 6992-6143 (13135) |
LR lryyy | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 81¢ | $338.58 | $372.02 | +$33.44 | 45% 778-952 (1730) |
38 38791873984189 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 84¢ | $399.58 | $357.16 | +$31.34 | 48% 3155-3450 (6605) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 89¢ | $200.24 | $205.86 | +$5.62 | 46% 472-558 (1030) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 79.9¢ | $195.7 | $203.35 | +$7.65 | 44% 352-457 (809) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 81¢ | $111.73 | $115.18 | +$3.45 | 51% 2485-2431 (4916) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Lucia Cortez Llorcaavg 9¢ | $18 | $28 | +$10 | 38% 981-1634 (2615) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmoavg 86¢ | $6.14 | $6.18 | +$0.04 | 49% 3740-3887 (7627) |
Invested
$1,253.4
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$137.3
Record
34%
358-691 (1049)
Invested
$1,210.13
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$50.17
Record
49%
505-529 (1034)
Invested
$1,050
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
793-723 (1516)
poshposhInvested
$786.76
Value
$859.53
PnL
+$72.77
Record
48%
1068-1142 (2210)
Invested
$435
Value
$445
PnL
+$10
Record
53%
6992-6143 (13135)
Invested
$338.58
Value
$372.02
PnL
+$33.44
Record
45%
778-952 (1730)
Invested
$399.58
Value
$357.16
PnL
+$31.34
Record
48%
3155-3450 (6605)
Invested
$200.24
Value
$205.86
PnL
+$5.62
Record
46%
472-558 (1030)
Invested
$195.7
Value
$203.35
PnL
+$7.65
Record
44%
352-457 (809)
Invested
$111.73
Value
$115.18
PnL
+$3.45
Record
51%
2485-2431 (4916)
Invested
$18
Value
$28
PnL
+$10
Record
38%
981-1634 (2615)
Invested
$6.14
Value
$6.18
PnL
+$0.04
Record
49%
3740-3887 (7627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
SlickRick123
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $1.4K
CandleHammerDrums
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $1.3K
NotJump
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $1.1K
poshposh
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $859.53
cigarettes
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $445
lryyy
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $372.02
38791873984189
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $357.16
omnibus-076daa
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $205.86
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $203.35
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo — $115.18