W35 Heraklion: Angella Okutoyi vs Jennifer Ruggeri
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jennifer Ruggeri (100%) · Jennifer Ruggeri at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Jennifer Ruggeri
6
Jennifer Ruggeri 100%
$4.1K
$133.64
92.3¢ → 100¢
+8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralJennifer Ruggeri at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2 | Jennifer Ruggeriavg 93.9¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$22.08 | 46% 104-122 (226) |
 RN1 | Jennifer Ruggeriavg 94.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$6.86 | 57% 3991-3004 (6995) |
FL Flaznorp | Jennifer Ruggeriavg 83.9¢ | $667.7 | $775.9 | +$108.2 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
38 38791873984189 | Jennifer Ruggeriavg 95.3¢ | $266.33 | $253.64 | -$0.8 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Jennifer Ruggeriavg 95¢ | $16.3 | $14.75 | -$1.55 | 49% 90-95 (185) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Jennifer Ruggeriavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $3.6 | -$1.15 | 23% 108-368 (476) |
alpheclabs2Invested
$1,796.3
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$22.08
Record
46%
104-122 (226)
RN1Invested
$1,267.13
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$6.86
Record
57%
3991-3004 (6995)
Invested
$667.7
Value
$775.9
PnL
+$108.2
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
Invested
$266.33
Value
$253.64
PnL
-$0.8
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
$16.3
Value
$14.75
PnL
-$1.55
Record
49%
90-95 (185)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$1.15
Record
23%
108-368 (476)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.