W35 Heraklion: Alisa Oktiabreva vs Sapfo Sakellaridi

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Alisa Oktiabreva (33%) · Alisa Oktiabreva at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 21

Alisa Oktiabreva95¢Sapfo Sakellaridi5¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alisa Oktiabreva

Consensus Traders

Alisa Oktiabreva 33%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$11

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 94.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlisa Oktiabreva at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alisa Oktiabreva

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alisa Oktiabreva95%

Sapfo Sakellaridi6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alisa Oktiabreva4 traders

Total Value$794.28

Total Shares848

Combined PnL+$3.98

Sapfo Sakellaridi8 traders

Total Value$385.61

Total Shares3,804

Combined PnL-$14.98

Alisa Oktiabreva — 33%Sapfo Sakellaridi — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 93.6¢	$719.53	$722.73	+$3.2	46% 472-558 (1030)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 11.1¢	$206.87	$194.94	-$11.93	49% 3740-3887 (7627)
FY fydiCTR	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 9.7¢	$82.77	$102.3	+$19.52	— 5-6 (11)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 88¢	$57.2	$57.85	+$0.65	40% 112-171 (283)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 13¢	$28.88	$29.99	+$1.11	49% 505-529 (1034)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 10.2¢	$58.62	$16.15	-$22.69	48% 3155-3450 (6605)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 10.6¢	$20.98	$15.8	-$5.18	38% 981-1634 (2615)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 7¢	$7	$9.5	+$2.5	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 87¢	$8.74	$8.93	+$0.19	51% 186-177 (363)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 8.9¢	$6.98	$8.66	+$1.68	50% 1551-1563 (3114)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sapfo Sakellaridiavg 6¢	$8.28	$8.28	-$0	51% 2485-2431 (4916)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 84¢	$4.82	$4.76	-$0.06	38% 526-863 (1389)

omnibus-076daa

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$719.53

Value

$722.73

PnL

+$3.2

Record

46%

472-558 (1030)

FlaznorpCTR

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Invested

$206.87

Value

$194.94

PnL

-$11.93

Record

49%

3740-3887 (7627)

fydiCTR

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Invested

$82.77

Value

$102.3

PnL

+$19.52

Record

—

5-6 (11)

mouzsynapse<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$57.2

Value

$57.85

PnL

+$0.65

Record

40%

112-171 (283)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Invested

$28.88

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$1.11

Record

49%

505-529 (1034)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Invested

$58.62

Value

$16.15

PnL

-$22.69

Record

48%

3155-3450 (6605)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Invested

$20.98

Value

$15.8

PnL

-$5.18

Record

38%

981-1634 (2615)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Invested

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

Eulhunter<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$8.74

Value

$8.93

PnL

+$0.19

Record

51%

186-177 (363)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Invested

$6.98

Value

$8.66

PnL

+$1.68

Record

50%

1551-1563 (3114)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Sapfo Sakellaridi

Invested

$8.28

Value

$8.28

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

2485-2431 (4916)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$4.82

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0.06

Record

38%

526-863 (1389)

Research grade

NeutralAlisa Oktiabreva at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alisa Oktiabreva

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alisa Oktiabreva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.