W50 Heraklion: Alisa Oktiabreva vs Martha MATOULA

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Alisa Oktiabreva (43%) · Alisa Oktiabreva at 64¢ · $761 held · ends Nov 14

Alisa Oktiabreva64¢Martha MATOULA36¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alisa Oktiabreva

Consensus Traders

Alisa Oktiabreva 43%

Total Value

$761.48

Combined PnL

$80.95

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 63.5¢

-19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlisa Oktiabreva at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alisa Oktiabreva

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alisa Oktiabreva64%

Martha MATOULA37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alisa Oktiabreva3 traders

Total Value$636.76

Total Shares754

Combined PnL+$42.3

Martha MATOULA4 traders

Total Value$124.72

Total Shares457

Combined PnL+$38.66

Alisa Oktiabreva — 43%Martha MATOULA — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 78.9¢	$539.21	$591.46	+$52.25	46% 1755-2052 (3807)
38 38791873984189CTR	Martha MATOULAavg 21.7¢	$73.13	$106.14	+$36.66	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 79.4¢	$43.66	$34.65	-$9.01	60% 4503-3004 (7507)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Martha MATOULAavg 12.5¢	$12.53	$13.5	+$0.97	53% 24138-21186 (45324)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Alisa Oktiabrevaavg 77.3¢	$11.6	$10.65	-$0.95	54% 6320-5388 (11708)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Martha MATOULAavg 10¢	$2.5	$3.38	+$0.88	54% 10365-8691 (19056)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Martha MATOULAavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.7	+$0.15	51% 26991-25572 (52563)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$539.21

Value

$591.46

PnL

+$52.25

Record

46%

1755-2052 (3807)

38791873984189CTR

Martha MATOULA

Invested

$73.13

Value

$106.14

PnL

+$36.66

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

thestingsnake<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$43.66

Value

$34.65

PnL

-$9.01

Record

60%

4503-3004 (7507)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Martha MATOULA

Invested

$12.53

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

24138-21186 (45324)

Eulhunter<$100

Alisa Oktiabreva

Invested

$11.6

Value

$10.65

PnL

-$0.95

Record

54%

6320-5388 (11708)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Martha MATOULA

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.88

Record

54%

10365-8691 (19056)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Martha MATOULA

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

Research grade

NeutralAlisa Oktiabreva at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alisa Oktiabreva

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alisa Oktiabreva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.