M25 Valencia: Bruno Pujol Navarro vs Iliyan Radulov
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Iliyan Radulov (50%) · Iliyan Radulov at 100¢ · $928 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Iliyan Radulov
6
Iliyan Radulov 50%
$927.94
$22.48
69.1¢ → 100¢
+45% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralIliyan Radulov at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Iliyan Radulovavg 72.4¢ | $623.85 | $611.88 | -$11.97 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
FL Flaznorp | Iliyan Radulovavg 43.4¢ | $115.29 | $138.72 | +$23.43 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Iliyan Radulovavg 86¢ | $85.79 | $90.96 | +$5.17 | 48% 59224-63218 (122442) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Bruno Pujol Navarroavg 14.6¢ | $55.99 | $67.1 | +$11.11 | 50% 20715-20970 (41685) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Bruno Pujol Navarroavg 20¢ | $21.04 | $18.41 | -$2.63 | 49% 14322-14999 (29321) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Bruno Pujol Navarroavg 70.1¢ | $3.5 | $0.88 | -$2.63 | 82% 7003-1508 (8511) |
RN1Invested
$623.85
Value
$611.88
PnL
-$11.97
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$115.29
Value
$138.72
PnL
+$23.43
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$85.79
Value
$90.96
PnL
+$5.17
Record
48%
59224-63218 (122442)
Invested
$55.99
Value
$67.1
PnL
+$11.11
Record
50%
20715-20970 (41685)
Invested
$21.04
Value
$18.41
PnL
-$2.63
Record
49%
14322-14999 (29321)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$2.63
Record
82%
7003-1508 (8511)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.