W75 Brisbane: Yuki Naito vs Mei Yamaguchi

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yuki Naito (71%) · Yuki Naito at 82¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 18

Yuki Naito82¢Mei Yamaguchi18¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yuki Naito

Consensus Traders

Yuki Naito 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$192.34

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 81.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYuki Naito at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yuki Naito

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yuki Naito82%

Mei Yamaguchi19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yuki Naito5 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares6,280

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Mei Yamaguchi2 traders

Total Value$851.85

Total Shares869

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yuki Naito — 71%Mei Yamaguchi — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yuki Naitoavg 82.6¢	$4.2K	$3.3K	-$852.45	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
RN1	Yuki Naitoavg 75.9¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$517.81	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Mei Yamaguchiavg 14¢	$208.77	$843.55	+$1.1K	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yuki Naitoavg 74.5¢	$895.8	$369.55	-$360.08	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Yuki Naito leg	Yuki Naitoavg 74.5¢	$412.17	$268.27	-$148.24
└ Mei Yamaguchi leg	Mei Yamaguchiavg 90¢	$176.98	$101.28	-$211.84
alpheclabs2	Yuki Naitoavg 67¢	$185.33	$192.24	+$6.92	46% 90-106 (196)
TH thestingsnake	Yuki Naitoavg 53.3¢	$129.77	$160.87	+$52.66	21% 96-364 (460)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Yuki Naitoavg 68¢	$127.5	$98.5	-$29	37% 416-694 (1110)
└ Yuki Naito leg	Yuki Naitoavg 68¢	$102	$72.75	-$29.25
└ Mei Yamaguchi leg	Mei Yamaguchiavg 51¢	$25.5	$25.75	+$0.25
CI cigarettes<$100	Yuki Naitoavg 68¢	$34	$34.75	+$0.75	53% 5552-4936 (10488)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Mei Yamaguchiavg 74¢	$13.1	$8.3	-$4.8	49% 83-87 (170)

Flaznorp

Yuki Naito

Invested

$4,160.4

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$852.45

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

RN1

Yuki Naito

Invested

$1,908.87

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$517.81

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Mei Yamaguchi

Invested

$208.77

Value

$843.55

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yuki Naito

Invested

$895.8

Value

$369.55

PnL

-$360.08

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Yuki Naito$412.1774.5¢-$148.24

Mei Yamaguchi$176.9890¢-$211.84

alpheclabs2

Yuki Naito

Invested

$185.33

Value

$192.24

PnL

+$6.92

Record

46%

90-106 (196)

thestingsnake

Yuki Naito

Invested

$129.77

Value

$160.87

PnL

+$52.66

Record

21%

96-364 (460)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Yuki Naito

Invested

$127.5

Value

$98.5

PnL

-$29

Record

37%

416-694 (1110)

Both legs:

Yuki Naito$10268¢-$29.25

Mei Yamaguchi$25.551¢+$0.25

cigarettes<$100

Yuki Naito

Invested

$34

Value

$34.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

5552-4936 (10488)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Mei Yamaguchi

Invested

$13.1

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$4.8

Record

49%

83-87 (170)

Research grade

NeutralYuki Naito at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yuki Naito

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yuki Naito wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.