W100 Incheon: Yuki Naito vs Sara Saito

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sara Saito (44%) · Sara Saito at 100¢ · $688 held · ends Nov 11

Yuki Naito<1¢Sara Saito>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sara Saito

Consensus Traders

Sara Saito 44%

Total Value

$688.42

Combined PnL

$80.06

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 100¢

+19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSara Saito at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sara Saito

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yuki Naito0%

Sara Saito100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yuki Naito5 traders

Total Value$441.25

Total Shares792

Combined PnL+$295.94

Sara Saito4 traders

Total Value$247.17

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$215.87

Yuki Naito — 56%Sara Saito — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yuki Naitoavg 16.1¢	$109.32	$372.67	+$263.35	46% 1376-1620 (2996)
RN1	Sara Saitoavg 83.2¢	$422.57	$228.47	-$194.1	53% 60020-52387 (112407)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Yuki Naitoavg 27.7¢	$21.44	$32	+$10.94	60% 4334-2905 (7239)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yuki Naitoavg 4¢	$1.57	$21.65	+$20.08	47% 10953-12334 (23287)
LO looppau<$100	Sara Saitoavg 99.9¢	$31.53	$14.2	-$17.33	99% 12147-81 (12228)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yuki Naitoavg 58.2¢	$9	$8.5	-$0.5	50% 20647-20936 (41583)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Yuki Naitoavg 37.3¢	$4.36	$6.43	+$2.07	54% 6122-5151 (11273)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Sara Saitoavg 85.6¢	$4.28	$2.25	-$2.03	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
DI dips.<$100	Sara Saitoavg 93.3¢	$4.67	$2.25	-$2.42	47% 10274-11665 (21939)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yuki Naito

Invested

$109.32

Value

$372.67

PnL

+$263.35

Record

46%

1376-1620 (2996)

RN1

Sara Saito

Invested

$422.57

Value

$228.47

PnL

-$194.1

Record

53%

60020-52387 (112407)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Yuki Naito

Invested

$21.44

Value

$32

PnL

+$10.94

Record

60%

4334-2905 (7239)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yuki Naito

Invested

$1.57

Value

$21.65

PnL

+$20.08

Record

47%

10953-12334 (23287)

looppau<$100

Sara Saito

Invested

$31.53

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$17.33

Record

99%

12147-81 (12228)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yuki Naito

Invested

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

20647-20936 (41583)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Yuki Naito

Invested

$4.36

Value

$6.43

PnL

+$2.07

Record

54%

6122-5151 (11273)

Flaznorp<$100

Sara Saito

Invested

$4.28

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$2.03

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

dips.<$100

Sara Saito

Invested

$4.67

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$2.42

Record

47%

10274-11665 (21939)

Research grade

NeutralSara Saito at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sara Saito

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sara Saito wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.