W50 Yokohama: Mio Mushika vs Remika Ohashi

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Remika Ohashi (38%) · Remika Ohashi at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 17

Mio Mushika<1¢Remika Ohashi>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Remika Ohashi

Consensus Traders

Remika Ohashi 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$508.44

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 100¢

+63% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRemika Ohashi at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Remika Ohashi

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mio Mushika0%

Remika Ohashi100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Remika Ohashi3 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares6,171

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Mio Mushika5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares12,311

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Remika Ohashi — 38%Mio Mushika — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12xmrbolt	Remika Ohashiavg 60.9¢	$4.3K	$5.0K	+$1.9K	6% 2-33 (35)
alpheclabs2CTR	Mio Mushikaavg 27.6¢	$3.8K	$3.1K	-$658.08	49% 65-68 (133)
OM omnibus-076daa	Remika Ohashiavg 66.5¢	$338.4	$482.66	+$144.26	34% 161-312 (473)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Mio Mushikaavg 24.1¢	$663.84	$396.05	-$267.8	52% 5288-4799 (10087)
└ Remika Ohashi leg	Remika Ohashiavg 73.8¢	$217.46	$275.65	+$58.19
└ Mio Mushika leg	Mio Mushikaavg 24.1¢	$446.38	$120.4	-$325.99
SL SlickRick123CTR	Mio Mushikaavg 32¢	$806.72	$176.35	-$630.37	13% 55-363 (418)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Remika Ohashiavg 62.4¢	$119.99	$162.58	+$42.59	9% 35-367 (402)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Mio Mushikaavg 44.7¢	$361.87	$149.84	-$212.03	22% 77-281 (358)
dips.CTR	Mio Mushikaavg 34.5¢	$209.64	$103.42	-$106.22	41% 184-261 (445)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Mio Mushikaavg 59.1¢	$48.33	$69.05	+$20.72	48% 26-28 (54)

12xmrbolt

Remika Ohashi

Invested

$4,268.6

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

2-33 (35)

alpheclabs2CTR

Mio Mushika

Invested

$3,784.36

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$658.08

Record

49%

65-68 (133)

omnibus-076daa

Remika Ohashi

Invested

$338.4

Value

$482.66

PnL

+$144.26

Record

34%

161-312 (473)

cigarettesARB<$100

Mio Mushika

Invested

$663.84

Value

$396.05

PnL

-$267.8

Record

52%

5288-4799 (10087)

Both legs:

Remika Ohashi$217.4673.8¢+$58.19

Mio Mushika$446.3824.1¢-$325.99

SlickRick123CTR

Mio Mushika

Invested

$806.72

Value

$176.35

PnL

-$630.37

Record

13%

55-363 (418)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Remika Ohashi

Invested

$119.99

Value

$162.58

PnL

+$42.59

Record

35-367 (402)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Mio Mushika

Invested

$361.87

Value

$149.84

PnL

-$212.03

Record

22%

77-281 (358)

dips.CTR

Mio Mushika

Invested

$209.64

Value

$103.42

PnL

-$106.22

Record

41%

184-261 (445)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Mio Mushika

Invested

$48.33

Value

$69.05

PnL

+$20.72

Record

48%

26-28 (54)

Research grade

NeutralRemika Ohashi at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Remika Ohashi

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Remika Ohashi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.