M15 San Gregorio di Catania: Giannicola Misasi vs Mariano Tammaro
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Giannicola Misasi (40%) · Giannicola Misasi at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
Giannicola Misasi
5
Giannicola Misasi 40%
$1.8K
-$42.99
52.5¢ → 50.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralGiannicola Misasi at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Giannicola Misasi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Giannicola Misasiavg 52.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$41.25 | 50% 20715-20970 (41685) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Giannicola Misasiavg 59¢ | $80.24 | $69.36 | -$10.88 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Mariano Tammaroavg 35¢ | $26.77 | $33.66 | +$6.88 | 47% 11065-12394 (23459) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Mariano Tammaroavg 45.2¢ | $15.27 | $14.85 | -$0.42 | 56% 8920-7126 (16046) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Mariano Tammaroavg 34¢ | $9.1 | $11.78 | +$2.68 | 57% 12255-9317 (21572) |
Invested
$1,725.1
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$41.25
Record
50%
20715-20970 (41685)
Invested
$80.24
Value
$69.36
PnL
-$10.88
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$26.77
Value
$33.66
PnL
+$6.88
Record
47%
11065-12394 (23459)
Invested
$15.27
Value
$14.85
PnL
-$0.42
Record
56%
8920-7126 (16046)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$9.1
Value
$11.78
PnL
+$2.68
Record
57%
12255-9317 (21572)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.