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Elena MicicHayu KinoshitaHayu KinoshitaHayu KinoshitaElena Micic
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Elena Micic — but Hayu Kinoshita won instead.
W75 Brisbane: Elena Micic vs Hayu Kinoshita
Resolved Hayu Kinoshita. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Elena Micic. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Elena Micic 40%
Total Value
$154.67
Combined PnL
-$582.52
Smart Money Signal
Elena Micic
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Elena Micic0%
Hayu Kinoshita100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Elena Micic2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares746
Combined PnL-$713.62
Hayu Kinoshita3 traders
Total Value$154.67
Total Shares155
Combined PnL+$131.1
Elena Micic — 40%Hayu Kinoshita — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Elena Micicavg 60.7¢ | $413.62 | — | -$413.62 | 51% 2468-2344 (4812) |
38 38791873984189 | Hayu Kinoshitaavg 36.7¢ | $86.36 | $100.89 | +$98.08 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
US User7429<$100 | Hayu Kinoshitaavg 38¢ | $14.36 | $37.78 | +$23.42 | 32% 182-386 (568) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Hayu Kinoshitaavg 40¢ | $6.4 | $16 | +$9.6 | 32% 276-598 (874) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR | Elena Micicavg 81¢ | $300 | — | -$300 | 47% 87-98 (185) |
FL
FlaznorpCTRInvested
$413.62
Value
—
PnL
-$413.62
Record
51%
2468-2344 (4812)
38
38791873984189Invested
$86.36
Value
$100.89
PnL
+$98.08
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
US
User7429<$100Invested
$14.36
Value
$37.78
PnL
+$23.42
Record
32%
182-386 (568)
0X
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100Invested
$6.4
Value
$16
PnL
+$9.6
Record
32%
276-598 (874)
0X
0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTRInvested
$300
Value
—
PnL
-$300
Record
47%
87-98 (185)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x91407d6e...d48ca4
Slug
itf-micic1-kinosh1-2026-11-12