W75 Brisbane: Elena Micic vs Lizette Cabrera
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Elena Micic (80%) · Elena Micic at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Elena Micic
5
Elena Micic 80%
$1.3K
$208.61
75.8¢ → 100¢
+32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralElena Micic at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Elena Micic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Elena Micicavg 69.9¢ | $510.27 | $686.51 | +$176.24 | 58% 3628-2593 (6221) |
FL Flaznorp | Elena Micicavg 77.3¢ | $328.58 | $388.17 | +$59.59 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
38 38791873984189 | Elena Micicavg 91.7¢ | $221.04 | $225.68 | +$18.84 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Elena Micicavg 75.3¢ | $55.35 | $18.8 | +$7.4 | 14% 51-322 (373) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Lizette Cabreraavg 22¢ | $65.34 | $11.88 | -$53.46 | 54% 1541-1296 (2837) |
RN1Invested
$510.27
Value
$686.51
PnL
+$176.24
Record
58%
3628-2593 (6221)
Invested
$328.58
Value
$388.17
PnL
+$59.59
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$221.04
Value
$225.68
PnL
+$18.84
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$55.35
Value
$18.8
PnL
+$7.4
Record
14%
51-322 (373)
Invested
$65.34
Value
$11.88
PnL
-$53.46
Record
54%
1541-1296 (2837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.