M25 San Gregorio di Catania: Michele Mecarelli vs Andrej Martin

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Andrej Martin (33%) · Andrej Martin at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 18

Michele Mecarelli<1¢Andrej Martin>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Andrej Martin

Consensus Traders

Andrej Martin 33%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralAndrej Martin at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Andrej Martin

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Michele Mecarelli0%

Andrej Martin100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michele Mecarelli4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares7,494

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Andrej Martin2 traders

Total Value$781.32

Total Shares1,359

Combined PnL-$341.13

Michele Mecarelli — 67%Andrej Martin — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2CTR	Michele Mecarelliavg 10.2¢	$747.63	$3.1K	+$2.4K	46% 109-130 (239)
PA pauleta23	Andrej Martinavg 94.7¢	$1,000	$607.08	-$392.92	28% 179-466 (645)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Andrej Martinavg 94.2¢	$7.4K	$174.24	+$51.79	57% 13-10 (23)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Michele Mecarelliavg 45.8¢	$69.64	$54.46	-$7.24	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Michele Mecarelliavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.25	-$0.45	28% 151-392 (543)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Michele Mecarelliavg 42¢	$2.01	$2.03	+$0.02	51% 1818-1779 (3597)

alpheclabs2CTR

Michele Mecarelli

Invested

$747.63

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

46%

109-130 (239)

pauleta23

Andrej Martin

Invested

$1,000

Value

$607.08

PnL

-$392.92

Record

28%

179-466 (645)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Andrej Martin

Invested

$7,396.44

Value

$174.24

PnL

+$51.79

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Michele Mecarelli

Invested

$69.64

Value

$54.46

PnL

-$7.24

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Michele Mecarelli

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.45

Record

28%

151-392 (543)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Michele Mecarelli

Invested

$2.01

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

Research grade

NeutralAndrej Martin at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Andrej Martin

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Andrej Martin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.