Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold YeXin Ma, while the market favors Rinko Matsuda (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W50 Yokohama: Rinko Matsuda vs YeXin Ma

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold YeXin Ma (60%) · YeXin Ma at 1.0¢ · $162 held · ends Nov 19

Rinko Matsuda99¢YeXin Ma1¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

YeXin Ma

Consensus Traders

YeXin Ma 60%

Total Value

$161.84

Combined PnL

$31.35

Research grade

AvoidYeXin Ma at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

YeXin Ma

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Rinko Matsuda 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rinko Matsuda99%

YeXin Ma1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

YeXin Ma3 traders

Total Value$100.59

Total Shares151

Combined PnL+$33.26

Rinko Matsuda2 traders

Total Value$61.25

Total Shares119

Combined PnL-$1.91

YeXin Ma — 60%Rinko Matsuda — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	YeXin Maavg 32¢	$42.41	$73.36	+$30.94	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Rinko Matsudaavg 72.3¢	$32.73	$34.68	+$1.96	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
C4 0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100	YeXin Maavg 59¢	$21.53	$26.82	+$5.29	—
RN1<$100	Rinko Matsudaavg 33¢	$30.44	$26.57	-$3.87	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
1D 0x1d1d...f2dfCTR<$100	YeXin Maavg 12.4¢	$3.38	$0.41	-$2.97	—

38791873984189CTR<$100

YeXin Ma

Invested

$42.41

Value

$73.36

PnL

+$30.94

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Flaznorp<$100

Rinko Matsuda

Invested

$32.73

Value

$34.68

PnL

+$1.96

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100

YeXin Ma

Invested

$21.53

Value

$26.82

PnL

+$5.29

Record

—

RN1<$100

Rinko Matsuda

Invested

$30.44

Value

$26.57

PnL

-$3.87

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

0x1d1d...f2dfCTR<$100

YeXin Ma

Invested

$3.38

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$2.97

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidYeXin Ma at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

YeXin Ma

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Rinko Matsuda 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that YeXin Ma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4666.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

4766.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.