M25 Lajeado: Eric Von Marton Martins vs Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Eric Von Marton Martins (18%) · Eric Von Marton Martins at 92¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 22

Eric Von Marton Martins92¢Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha8¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eric Von Marton Martins

Consensus Traders

Eric Von Marton Martins 18%

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

-$296.57

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 92¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralEric Von Marton Martins at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eric Von Marton Martins

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Eric Von Marton Martins92%

Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eric Von Marton Martins2 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares12,325

Combined PnL-$193.28

Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares14,051

Combined PnL-$103.29

Eric Von Marton Martins — 18%Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295	Eric Von Marton Martinsavg 92¢	$11.3K	$11.1K	-$190.03	83% 30-6 (36)
NO NotJumpCTR	Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunhaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunhaavg 8.3¢	$460.78	$361.74	-$99.04	49% 629-659 (1288)
SM smithagentCTR	Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunhaavg 8.7¢	$289.09	$265.34	-$23.75	46% 873-1017 (1890)
dips.CTR	Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunhaavg 6¢	$78.74	$104.78	+$26.04	48% 1294-1381 (2675)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunhaavg 7.8¢	$96.32	$98.47	+$2.15	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunhaavg 7.8¢	$53.74	$44.78	-$8.96	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Eric Von Marton Martinsavg 92¢	$46	$42.75	-$3.25	38% 329-529 (858)
poshposhCTR<$100	Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunhaavg 8.8¢	$32.7	$35.38	+$2.68	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunhaavg 6¢	$30.25	$27.78	-$2.48	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunhaavg 6¢	$0.74	$0.8	+$0.06	46% 467-554 (1021)

0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295

Eric Von Marton Martins

Invested

$11,298.86

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$190.03

Record

83%

30-6 (36)

NotJumpCTR

Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha

Invested

$460.78

Value

$361.74

PnL

-$99.04

Record

49%

629-659 (1288)

smithagentCTR

Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha

Invested

$289.09

Value

$265.34

PnL

-$23.75

Record

46%

873-1017 (1890)

dips.CTR

Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha

Invested

$78.74

Value

$104.78

PnL

+$26.04

Record

48%

1294-1381 (2675)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha

Invested

$96.32

Value

$98.47

PnL

+$2.15

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha

Invested

$53.74

Value

$44.78

PnL

-$8.96

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Eric Von Marton Martins

Invested

$46

Value

$42.75

PnL

-$3.25

Record

38%

329-529 (858)

poshposhCTR<$100

Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha

Invested

$32.7

Value

$35.38

PnL

+$2.68

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha

Invested

$30.25

Value

$27.78

PnL

-$2.48

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Bruno Soares Montenegro Cunha

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0.06

Record

46%

467-554 (1021)

Research grade

NeutralEric Von Marton Martins at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eric Von Marton Martins

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eric Von Marton Martins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.