M25 Montreal: Maximilian Marterer vs Cannon Kingsley

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Maximilian Marterer (83%) · Maximilian Marterer at 51¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 22

Maximilian Marterer51¢Cannon Kingsley49¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maximilian Marterer

Consensus Traders

Maximilian Marterer 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$565.72

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 51.4¢

-24% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaximilian Marterer at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maximilian Marterer

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Maximilian Marterer51%

Cannon Kingsley49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maximilian Marterer10 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares7,307

Combined PnL+$524.37

Cannon Kingsley2 traders

Total Value$57.46

Total Shares206

Combined PnL+$41.34

Maximilian Marterer — 83%Cannon Kingsley — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Maximilian Marterer. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaximilian Marterer 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMaximilian Marterer 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Maximilian Marterer 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Maximilian Martereravg 68¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$765.16	47% 226-251 (477)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Maximilian Martereravg 85.2¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$283.64	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
└ Maximilian Marterer leg	Maximilian Martereravg 85.2¢	$1.1K	$964.02	-$176.45
└ Cannon Kingsley leg	Cannon Kingsleyavg 31.7¢	$896.22	$789.02	-$107.19
NO NotJump	Maximilian Martereravg 56.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$118.65	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
RN1	Maximilian Martereravg 89.2¢	$1.1K	$982.1	-$167.77	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Maximilian Martereravg 52.1¢	$1.0K	$649.08	+$91.73	48% 638-680 (1318)
38 38791873984189	Maximilian Martereravg 68¢	$382.57	$189.68	-$35.67	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
poshposh	Maximilian Martereravg 89¢	$201.37	$163.02	-$38.35	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
CI cigarettes<$100	Maximilian Martereravg 50.7¢	$74.89	$78.95	+$4.06	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Cannon Kingsleyavg 8¢	$16	$55.9	+$39.9	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Maximilian Martereravg 51¢	$23.3	$47.59	+$33.59	46% 479-565 (1044)
SM smithagent<$100	Maximilian Martereravg 82¢	$31.98	$28.1	-$3.88	46% 882-1039 (1921)
dips.<$100	Maximilian Martereravg 95.4¢	$23.85	$18.01	-$5.85	48% 1307-1398 (2705)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Cannon Kingsleyavg 2.1¢	$0.12	$1.56	+$1.44	50% 2851-2894 (5745)

glennyorkshire

Maximilian Marterer

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$765.16

Record

47%

226-251 (477)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Maximilian Marterer

Invested

$2,036.69

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$283.64

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Both legs:

Maximilian Marterer$1,140.4785.2¢-$176.45

Cannon Kingsley$896.2231.7¢-$107.19

NotJump

Maximilian Marterer

Invested

$1,228

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$118.65

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

RN1

Maximilian Marterer

Invested

$1,149.87

Value

$982.1

PnL

-$167.77

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

CandleHammerDrums

Maximilian Marterer

Invested

$1,037.78

Value

$649.08

PnL

+$91.73

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

38791873984189

Maximilian Marterer

Invested

$382.57

Value

$189.68

PnL

-$35.67

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

poshposh

Maximilian Marterer

Invested

$201.37

Value

$163.02

PnL

-$38.35

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

cigarettes<$100

Maximilian Marterer

Invested

$74.89

Value

$78.95

PnL

+$4.06

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Cannon Kingsley

Invested

$16

Value

$55.9

PnL

+$39.9

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Maximilian Marterer

Invested

$23.3

Value

$47.59

PnL

+$33.59

Record

46%

479-565 (1044)

smithagent<$100

Maximilian Marterer

Invested

$31.98

Value

$28.1

PnL

-$3.88

Record

46%

882-1039 (1921)

dips.<$100

Maximilian Marterer

Invested

$23.85

Value

$18.01

PnL

-$5.85

Record

48%

1307-1398 (2705)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Cannon Kingsley

Invested

$0.12

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$1.44

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

Research grade

NeutralMaximilian Marterer at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Maximilian Marterer

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Maximilian Marterer. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaximilian Marterer 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMaximilian Marterer 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Maximilian Marterer 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maximilian Marterer wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.