Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Andrea De Marchi, while the market favors Daniele Rapagnetta (55%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
M25 San Gregorio di Catania: Andrea De Marchi vs Daniele Rapagnetta
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Andrea De Marchi (60%) · Andrea De Marchi at 46¢ · $615 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Andrea De Marchi
5
Andrea De Marchi 60%
1 arb excluded
$614.61
-$160.26
68.5¢ → 45.5¢
-34% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAndrea De Marchi at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Daniele Rapagnetta 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Andrea De Marchiavg 67.6¢ | $305.11 | $276.04 | -$29.06 | 57% 4029-3044 (7073) |
| └ Andrea De Marchi leg | Andrea De Marchiavg 67.6¢ | $211.12 | $178.04 | -$33.08 | |
| └ Daniele Rapagnetta leg | Daniele Rapagnettaavg 41.2¢ | $93.99 | $98.01 | +$4.02 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Andrea De Marchiavg 61.6¢ | $337.92 | $249.53 | -$88.39 | 51% 1833-1787 (3620) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Andrea De Marchiavg 95¢ | $126.54 | $62.6 | -$63.94 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Daniele Rapagnettaavg 42¢ | $24.56 | $19.08 | -$5.48 | 48% 1332-1446 (2778) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Andrea De Marchiavg 94¢ | $9.4 | $4.7 | -$4.7 | 24% 107-348 (455) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Daniele Rapagnettaavg 8¢ | $0.4 | $2.65 | +$2.25 | 53% 1801-1611 (3412) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$305.11
Value
$276.04
PnL
-$29.06
Record
57%
4029-3044 (7073)
Both legs:
Invested
$337.92
Value
$249.53
PnL
-$88.39
Record
51%
1833-1787 (3620)
Invested
$126.54
Value
$62.6
PnL
-$63.94
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Invested
$24.56
Value
$19.08
PnL
-$5.48
Record
48%
1332-1446 (2778)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$4.7
Record
24%
107-348 (455)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$2.25
Record
53%
1801-1611 (3412)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.