W75 Brisbane: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Joanna Garland
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Joanna Garland (67%) · Joanna Garland at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22
⚖️
Neutral
Joanna Garland
9
Joanna Garland 67%
$2.1K
$4.79
83.1¢ → 100¢
+20% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralJoanna Garland at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Joanna Garland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotJumpCTR | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 50¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 51% 994-962 (1956) |
FL Flaznorp | Joanna Garlandavg 86¢ | $605.02 | $574.31 | -$30.71 | 49% 4352-4620 (8972) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Joanna Garlandavg 56.5¢ | $108.12 | $166.34 | +$58.22 | 46% 568-669 (1237) |
38 38791873984189 | Joanna Garlandavg 97.5¢ | $212.62 | $104.44 | -$2.29 | 47% 3580-3963 (7543) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0 | Joanna Garlandavg 95¢ | $102.5 | $99.11 | -$3.39 | 45% 433-525 (958) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Joanna Garlandavg 95¢ | $94.05 | $97.96 | +$3.91 | 46% 884-1056 (1940) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Joanna Garlandavg 39.5¢ | $5.14 | $11.31 | +$6.17 | 52% 201-182 (383) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 12¢ | $7.8 | $0.81 | -$6.99 | 34% 228-440 (668) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 4.3¢ | $20.38 | $0.24 | -$20.14 | 55% 5758-4807 (10565) |
Invested
$1,050
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
994-962 (1956)
Invested
$605.02
Value
$574.31
PnL
-$30.71
Record
49%
4352-4620 (8972)
Invested
$108.12
Value
$166.34
PnL
+$58.22
Record
46%
568-669 (1237)
Invested
$212.62
Value
$104.44
PnL
-$2.29
Record
47%
3580-3963 (7543)
Invested
$102.5
Value
$99.11
PnL
-$3.39
Record
45%
433-525 (958)
Invested
$94.05
Value
$97.96
PnL
+$3.91
Record
46%
884-1056 (1940)
Invested
$5.14
Value
$11.31
PnL
+$6.17
Record
52%
201-182 (383)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$0.81
PnL
-$6.99
Record
34%
228-440 (668)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$20.38
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$20.14
Record
55%
5758-4807 (10565)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
NotJump
CTRCarol Young Suh Lee — $1.1K
Flaznorp
Joanna Garland — $574.31
omnibus-076daa
Joanna Garland — $166.34
38791873984189
Joanna Garland — $104.44
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
Joanna Garland — $99.11
lryyy
Joanna Garland — $97.96
Eulhunter
Joanna Garland — $11.31
thestingsnake
CTRCarol Young Suh Lee — $0.81
RN1
CTRCarol Young Suh Lee — $0.24