Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rishvanth Krishna, while the market favors Ofek Shimanov (68%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Columbus, OH: Rishvanth Krishna vs Ofek Shimanov

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rishvanth Krishna (50%) · Rishvanth Krishna at 33¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Rishvanth Krishna33¢Ofek Shimanov67¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rishvanth Krishna

Consensus Traders

Rishvanth Krishna 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$184.23

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 32.5¢

-38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralRishvanth Krishna at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rishvanth Krishna

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Ofek Shimanov 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rishvanth Krishna33%

Ofek Shimanov68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ofek Shimanov4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,882

Combined PnL+$553.93

Rishvanth Krishna4 traders

Total Value$804.13

Total Shares2,239

Combined PnL-$369.69

Ofek Shimanov — 50%Rishvanth Krishna — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-34 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Rishvanth Krishna. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRishvanth Krishna 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOfek Shimanov 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ofek Shimanov 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Rishvanth Krishnaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	54% 475-399 (874)
└ Ofek Shimanov leg	Ofek Shimanovavg 50¢	$525	$829.5	+$304.5
└ Rishvanth Krishna leg	Rishvanth Krishnaavg 50¢	$525	$220.5	-$304.5
RN1	Ofek Shimanovavg 44.6¢	$513.21	$880.67	+$367.46	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Rishvanth Krishnaavg 58.9¢	$881.6	$539.19	-$342.41	46% 89-104 (193)
FL Flaznorp	Ofek Shimanovavg 56.8¢	$305.08	$356.9	+$51.83	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Rishvanth Krishnaavg 39.4¢	$282.37	$257.94	-$24.43	42% 291-408 (699)
38 38791873984189	Ofek Shimanovavg 36.6¢	$198.71	$213.06	+$116.65	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Ofek Shimanovavg 43¢	$21.5	$39.5	+$18	36% 548-955 (1503)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Rishvanth Krishnaavg 68¢	$6.85	$3.63	-$3.22	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Rishvanth Krishnaavg 20¢	$3	$3.38	+$0.38	41% 265-378 (643)

NotJumpARB<$100

Rishvanth Krishna

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

475-399 (874)

Both legs:

Ofek Shimanov$52550¢+$304.5

Rishvanth Krishna$52550¢-$304.5

RN1

Ofek Shimanov

Invested

$513.21

Value

$880.67

PnL

+$367.46

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Rishvanth Krishna

Invested

$881.6

Value

$539.19

PnL

-$342.41

Record

46%

89-104 (193)

Flaznorp

Ofek Shimanov

Invested

$305.08

Value

$356.9

PnL

+$51.83

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Rishvanth Krishna

Invested

$282.37

Value

$257.94

PnL

-$24.43

Record

42%

291-408 (699)

38791873984189

Ofek Shimanov

Invested

$198.71

Value

$213.06

PnL

+$116.65

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

topdogbigboi<$100

Ofek Shimanov

Invested

$21.5

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$18

Record

36%

548-955 (1503)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Rishvanth Krishna

Invested

$6.85

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$3.22

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Rishvanth Krishna

Invested

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

41%

265-378 (643)

Research grade

NeutralRishvanth Krishna at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rishvanth Krishna

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Ofek Shimanov 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-34 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Rishvanth Krishna. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRishvanth Krishna 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOfek Shimanov 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ofek Shimanov 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rishvanth Krishna wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.