M15 Hilton Head Island, SC: Liam Krall vs Henry Lieberman

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Henry Lieberman (83%) · Henry Lieberman at 100¢ · $97 held · ends Nov 11

Liam Krall<1¢Henry Lieberman>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Henry Lieberman

Consensus Traders

Henry Lieberman 83%

Total Value

$96.95

Combined PnL

$5.08

Research grade

NeutralHenry Lieberman at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Henry Lieberman

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Liam Krall0%

Henry Lieberman100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Henry Lieberman5 traders

Total Value$90.89

Total Shares162

Combined PnL+$5.01

Liam Krall1 trader

Total Value$6.06

Total Shares13

Combined PnL+$0.06

Henry Lieberman — 83%Liam Krall — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Henry Liebermanavg 48.2¢	$37.33	$40.7	+$3.37	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
VE Venusian<$100	Henry Liebermanavg 47.8¢	$28.15	$30.89	+$2.74	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
LO looppau<$100	Henry Liebermanavg 99.9¢	$12.73	$12.73	+$0.01	99% 12175-82 (12257)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Liam Krallavg 47¢	$5.99	$6.06	+$0.06	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Henry Liebermanavg 42.6¢	$3.2	$3.95	+$0.75	47% 11071-12407 (23478)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Henry Liebermanavg 89.5¢	$4.47	$2.63	-$1.85	82% 7015-1513 (8528)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Henry Lieberman

Invested

$37.33

Value

$40.7

PnL

+$3.37

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

Venusian<$100

Henry Lieberman

Invested

$28.15

Value

$30.89

PnL

+$2.74

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

looppau<$100

Henry Lieberman

Invested

$12.73

Value

$12.73

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

12175-82 (12257)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Liam Krall

Invested

$5.99

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

topdogbigboi<$100

Henry Lieberman

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.75

Record

47%

11071-12407 (23478)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Henry Lieberman

Invested

$4.47

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$1.85

Record

82%

7015-1513 (8528)

Research grade

NeutralHenry Lieberman at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Henry Lieberman

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Henry Lieberman wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.