Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Julio Cesar Porras, while the market favors Ioannis Kountourakis (83%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
M15 Heraklion: Ioannis Kountourakis vs Julio Cesar Porras
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Julio Cesar Porras (80%) · Julio Cesar Porras at 18¢ · $191 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Julio Cesar Porras
5
Julio Cesar Porras 80%
$190.51
-$31.85
60.3¢ → 17.5¢
-71% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidJulio Cesar Porras at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Ioannis Kountourakis 83%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Julio Cesar Porrasavg 52.2¢ | $88.25 | $52.44 | -$35.82 | 48% 752-814 (1566) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Ioannis Kountourakisavg 23.5¢ | $50.04 | $46.91 | -$3.13 | 52% 5313-4817 (10130) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Julio Cesar Porrasavg 75.2¢ | $39.75 | $41.25 | +$1.5 | 48% 407-443 (850) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Julio Cesar Porrasavg 76¢ | $34.96 | $35.88 | +$0.92 | 50% 1384-1403 (2787) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Julio Cesar Porrasavg 52¢ | $9.36 | $14.04 | +$4.68 | 54% 1606-1351 (2957) |
Invested
$88.25
Value
$52.44
PnL
-$35.82
Record
48%
752-814 (1566)
Invested
$50.04
Value
$46.91
PnL
-$3.13
Record
52%
5313-4817 (10130)
Invested
$39.75
Value
$41.25
PnL
+$1.5
Record
48%
407-443 (850)
Invested
$34.96
Value
$35.88
PnL
+$0.92
Record
50%
1384-1403 (2787)
Invested
$9.36
Value
$14.04
PnL
+$4.68
Record
54%
1606-1351 (2957)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.