W15 Monastir: Victoria Kapcia vs Sophie Ehrenbergerova
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sophie Ehrenbergerova (60%) · Sophie Ehrenbergerova at 98¢ · $158 held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Sophie Ehrenbergerova
5
Sophie Ehrenbergerova 60%
$157.86
-$0.01
83.3¢ → 97.7¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSophie Ehrenbergerova at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Sophie Ehrenbergerovaavg 83¢ | $75.33 | $75.78 | +$0.45 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | Sophie Ehrenbergerovaavg 84¢ | $42 | $41.75 | -$0.25 | 1% 1-78 (79) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Sophie Ehrenbergerovaavg 83¢ | $20.75 | $20.88 | +$0.13 | 49% 629-666 (1295) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Victoria Kapciaavg 17¢ | $19.68 | $19.1 | -$0.58 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Victoria Kapciaavg 5¢ | $0.11 | $0.35 | +$0.24 | 53% 1763-1567 (3330) |
Invested
$75.33
Value
$75.78
PnL
+$0.45
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
Basquetipster<$100Invested
$42
Value
$41.75
PnL
-$0.25
Record
1%
1-78 (79)
Invested
$20.75
Value
$20.88
PnL
+$0.13
Record
49%
629-666 (1295)
Invested
$19.68
Value
$19.1
PnL
-$0.58
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.35
PnL
+$0.24
Record
53%
1763-1567 (3330)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.