W50 Huamantla: Sofia Johnson vs Jessica Hinojosa Gomez
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sofia Johnson (40%) · Sofia Johnson at 81¢ · $289 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Sofia Johnson
5
Sofia Johnson 40%
$288.59
$0.6
93.9¢ → 80.9¢
-14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSofia Johnson at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Sofia Johnsonavg 94¢ | $224.66 | $212.71 | -$11.95 | 53% 61353-53664 (115017) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 6.3¢ | $18.15 | $31.79 | +$13.64 | 46% 1536-1808 (3344) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 18.7¢ | $25.6 | $26.47 | +$0.87 | 51% 25736-24442 (50178) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 12.7¢ | $15.18 | $13.17 | -$2.01 | 53% 1421-1264 (2685) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Sofia Johnsonavg 88¢ | $4.4 | $4.45 | +$0.05 | 50% 25814-25509 (51323) |
RN1Invested
$224.66
Value
$212.71
PnL
-$11.95
Record
53%
61353-53664 (115017)
Invested
$18.15
Value
$31.79
PnL
+$13.64
Record
46%
1536-1808 (3344)
Invested
$25.6
Value
$26.47
PnL
+$0.87
Record
51%
25736-24442 (50178)
Invested
$15.18
Value
$13.17
PnL
-$2.01
Record
53%
1421-1264 (2685)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.45
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
25814-25509 (51323)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.