W50 Chihuahua: Sofia Johnson vs Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Miriam Bianca Bulgaru (56%) · Miriam Bianca Bulgaru at 69¢ · $488 held · ends Nov 19

Sofia Johnson32¢Miriam Bianca Bulgaru68¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Consensus Traders

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru 56%

Total Value

$487.86

Combined PnL

$80.04

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 68.5¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiriam Bianca Bulgaru at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sofia Johnson32%

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sofia Johnson4 traders

Total Value$247.07

Total Shares384

Combined PnL+$85.79

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru5 traders

Total Value$240.79

Total Shares438

Combined PnL-$5.75

Sofia Johnson — 44%Miriam Bianca Bulgaru — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
7C 0x7c1e...bab3CTR	Sofia Johnsonavg 41¢	$80.76	$130	+$49.24	—
C4 0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100	Sofia Johnsonavg 45¢	$67.5	$99	+$31.5	—
TH thestingsnake<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 58.9¢	$72.59	$89.39	+$16.8	27% 144-385 (529)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 56.6¢	$65.4	$83.82	+$18.42	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
74 0x7462...3ac3<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 58¢	$100	$58.62	-$41.38	—
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Sofia Johnsonavg 36.5¢	$7.3	$13.2	+$5.9	49% 118-121 (239)
20 0x200f...7a96<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 32¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.29	—
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sofia Johnsonavg 33.4¢	$5.71	$4.87	-$0.84	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
US User7429<$100	Miriam Bianca Bulgaruavg 33¢	$3.85	$3.97	+$0.12	25% 117-356 (473)

0x7c1e...bab3CTR

Sofia Johnson

Invested

$80.76

Value

$130

PnL

+$49.24

Record

—

0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100

Sofia Johnson

Invested

$67.5

Value

$99

PnL

+$31.5

Record

—

thestingsnake<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$72.59

Value

$89.39

PnL

+$16.8

Record

27%

144-385 (529)

Flaznorp<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$65.4

Value

$83.82

PnL

+$18.42

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0x7462...3ac3<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$100

Value

$58.62

PnL

-$41.38

Record

—

EulhunterCTR<$100

Sofia Johnson

Invested

$7.3

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$5.9

Record

49%

118-121 (239)

0x200f...7a96<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$4.7

Value

PnL

+$0.29

Record

—

38791873984189CTR<$100

Sofia Johnson

Invested

$5.71

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$0.84

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

User7429<$100

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.97

PnL

+$0.12

Record

25%

117-356 (473)

Research grade

NeutralMiriam Bianca Bulgaru at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miriam Bianca Bulgaru wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.