W35 Weston, FL: Capucine Jauffret vs Kylie Collins
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kylie Collins (100%) · Kylie Collins at 66¢ · $623 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Kylie Collins
5
Kylie Collins 100%
$622.98
$71.86
66.5¢ → 65.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralKylie Collins at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Kylie Collinsavg 68.9¢ | $223.18 | $253.69 | +$30.51 | 57% 4029-3048 (7077) |
FL Flaznorp | Kylie Collinsavg 65¢ | $201.5 | $249.55 | +$48.05 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
38 38791873984189 | Kylie Collinsavg 65.1¢ | $109.34 | $101.64 | -$7.71 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Kylie Collinsavg 62¢ | $14.15 | $14.08 | -$0.08 | 25% 124-374 (498) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Kylie Collinsavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $4.03 | +$1.08 | 49% 102-106 (208) |
RN1Invested
$223.18
Value
$253.69
PnL
+$30.51
Record
57%
4029-3048 (7077)
Invested
$201.5
Value
$249.55
PnL
+$48.05
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$109.34
Value
$101.64
PnL
-$7.71
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$14.15
Value
$14.08
PnL
-$0.08
Record
25%
124-374 (498)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$4.03
PnL
+$1.08
Record
49%
102-106 (208)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.