M25 Vale do Lobo: Ivan Ivanov vs Pavel Lagutin

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pavel Lagutin (75%) · Pavel Lagutin at 76¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 20

Ivan Ivanov24¢Pavel Lagutin76¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Pavel Lagutin

Consensus Traders

Pavel Lagutin 75%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$118.03

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 76¢

+26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPavel Lagutin at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pavel Lagutin

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ivan Ivanov24%

Pavel Lagutin76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pavel Lagutin6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,080

Combined PnL-$117.46

Ivan Ivanov2 traders

Total Value$30.81

Total Shares113

Combined PnL-$0.57

Pavel Lagutin — 75%Ivan Ivanov — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Pavel Lagutin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPavel Lagutin 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Pavel Lagutin 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Pavel Lagutinavg 50¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$35	53% 634-568 (1202)
FL Flaznorp	Pavel Lagutinavg 84.6¢	$402.92	$329.38	-$73.54	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
poshposh	Pavel Lagutinavg 70¢	$222.26	$240.26	+$18	47% 786-902 (1688)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Pavel Lagutinavg 85¢	$210.13	$187.14	-$22.99	48% 425-457 (882)
dips.CTR<$100	Ivan Ivanovavg 28.3¢	$29.1	$28.33	-$0.77	46% 741-865 (1606)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Pavel Lagutinavg 79.1¢	$29.86	$26.43	-$3.43	44% 392-498 (890)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Pavel Lagutinavg 80¢	$4	$3.5	-$0.5	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Ivan Ivanovavg 22¢	$2.27	$2.48	+$0.21	43% 312-419 (731)

NotJump

Pavel Lagutin

Invested

$2,050

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$35

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

Flaznorp

Pavel Lagutin

Invested

$402.92

Value

$329.38

PnL

-$73.54

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

poshposh

Pavel Lagutin

Invested

$222.26

Value

$240.26

PnL

+$18

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

CandleHammerDrums

Pavel Lagutin

Invested

$210.13

Value

$187.14

PnL

-$22.99

Record

48%

425-457 (882)

dips.CTR<$100

Ivan Ivanov

Invested

$29.1

Value

$28.33

PnL

-$0.77

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Pavel Lagutin

Invested

$29.86

Value

$26.43

PnL

-$3.43

Record

44%

392-498 (890)

ferdinand2<$100

Pavel Lagutin

Invested

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Ivan Ivanov

Invested

$2.27

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.21

Record

43%

312-419 (731)

Research grade

NeutralPavel Lagutin at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pavel Lagutin

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Pavel Lagutin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPavel Lagutin 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Pavel Lagutin 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pavel Lagutin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.