Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ava Catanzarite, while the market favors Dasha Ivanova (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W35 Weston, FL: Dasha Ivanova vs Ava Catanzarite

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Ava Catanzarite (63%) · Ava Catanzarite at 0.1¢ · $91 held · ends Nov 19

Dasha Ivanova>99¢Ava Catanzarite<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ava Catanzarite

Consensus Traders

Ava Catanzarite 63%

Total Value

$90.97

Combined PnL

-$13.22

Research grade

AvoidAva Catanzarite at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ava Catanzarite

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Dasha Ivanova 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Dasha Ivanova100%

Ava Catanzarite0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ava Catanzarite5 traders

Total Value$64.68

Total Shares198

Combined PnL-$18.56

Dasha Ivanova3 traders

Total Value$26.29

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$5.34

Ava Catanzarite — 63%Dasha Ivanova — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Ava Catanzarite. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Dasha Ivanova) and the top 1000 (8 on Ava Catanzarite) disagree here.

ctrAva Catanzarite 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedDasha Ivanova 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ava Catanzarite 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Ava Catanzariteavg 39.5¢	$44.04	$37.91	-$6.13	37% 538-932 (1470)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Ava Catanzariteavg 44¢	$20.11	$15.54	-$4.57	32% 538-1128 (1666)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Dasha Ivanovaavg 56¢	$10	$10.71	+$0.71	45% 100-123 (223)
RN1<$100	Dasha Ivanovaavg 60¢	$6	$9.58	+$3.58	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Ava Catanzariteavg 51¢	$9.69	$6.46	-$3.23	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Dasha Ivanovaavg 49.5¢	$4.95	$6	+$1.05	50% 141-139 (280)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Ava Catanzariteavg 50.1¢	$6.5	$4.42	-$2.09	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ava Catanzariteavg 34¢	$2.9	$0.36	-$2.54	42% 291-405 (696)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Ava Catanzarite

Invested

$44.04

Value

$37.91

PnL

-$6.13

Record

37%

538-932 (1470)

VenusianCTR<$100

Ava Catanzarite

Invested

$20.11

Value

$15.54

PnL

-$4.57

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

glennyorkshire<$100

Dasha Ivanova

Invested

$10

Value

$10.71

PnL

+$0.71

Record

45%

100-123 (223)

RN1<$100

Dasha Ivanova

Invested

Value

$9.58

PnL

+$3.58

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Ava Catanzarite

Invested

$9.69

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$3.23

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

Eulhunter<$100

Dasha Ivanova

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

141-139 (280)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Ava Catanzarite

Invested

$6.5

Value

$4.42

PnL

-$2.09

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Ava Catanzarite

Invested

$2.9

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$2.54

Record

42%

291-405 (696)

Research grade

AvoidAva Catanzarite at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Ava Catanzarite

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Dasha Ivanova 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Ava Catanzarite. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Dasha Ivanova) and the top 1000 (8 on Ava Catanzarite) disagree here.

ctrAva Catanzarite 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedDasha Ivanova 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ava Catanzarite 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ava Catanzarite wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.