W75 Brisbane: Merel Hoedt vs Yujia Huang

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yujia Huang (100%) · Yujia Huang at 64¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 17

Merel Hoedt37¢Yujia Huang63¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yujia Huang

Consensus Traders

Yujia Huang 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 63.5¢

+47% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYujia Huang at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yujia Huang

7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Merel Hoedt37%

Yujia Huang64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yujia Huang7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares6,351

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yujia Huang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYujia Huang 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYujia Huang 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYujia Huang 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yujia Huang 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yujia Huangavg 42.1¢	$1.9K	$2.9K	+$1.0K	54% 1541-1296 (2837)
RN1ARB<$100	Merel Hoedtavg 50.7¢	$2.8K	$2.2K	-$576.16	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
└ Merel Hoedt leg	Merel Hoedtavg 50.7¢	$2.2K	$1.3K	-$881.33
└ Yujia Huang leg	Yujia Huangavg 46.5¢	$605.1	$910.27	+$305.17
FL Flaznorp	Yujia Huangavg 44.5¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$230	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Merel Hoedtavg 44.9¢	$769.04	$561.18	-$3.13	48% 603-645 (1248)
└ Yujia Huang leg	Yujia Huangavg 45.9¢	$218.91	$355.07	+$128.51
└ Merel Hoedt leg	Merel Hoedtavg 44.9¢	$362.9	$206.11	-$131.64
OM omnibus-076daa	Yujia Huangavg 41.7¢	$156.77	$233.36	+$76.5	34% 147-291 (438)
machinelearned	Yujia Huangavg 48.8¢	$86.84	$110.42	+$23.58	27% 213-562 (775)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Yujia Huangavg 45.4¢	$59.38	$74.4	+$23.27	14% 51-322 (373)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Yujia Huangavg 62¢	$55.79	$59.39	+$3.6	48% 24-26 (50)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Yujia Huangavg 56¢	$2.8	$3.1	-$1.23	53% 45-40 (85)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yujia Huang

Invested

$1,866.83

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

RN1ARB<$100

Merel Hoedt

Invested

$2,762.23

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$576.16

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

Both legs:

Merel Hoedt$2,157.1250.7¢-$881.33

Yujia Huang$605.146.5¢+$305.17

Flaznorp

Yujia Huang

Invested

$1,130.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$230

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Merel Hoedt

Invested

$769.04

Value

$561.18

PnL

-$3.13

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Both legs:

Yujia Huang$218.9145.9¢+$128.51

Merel Hoedt$362.944.9¢-$131.64

omnibus-076daa

Yujia Huang

Invested

$156.77

Value

$233.36

PnL

+$76.5

Record

34%

147-291 (438)

machinelearned

Yujia Huang

Invested

$86.84

Value

$110.42

PnL

+$23.58

Record

27%

213-562 (775)

thestingsnake<$100

Yujia Huang

Invested

$59.38

Value

$74.4

PnL

+$23.27

Record

14%

51-322 (373)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Yujia Huang

Invested

$55.79

Value

$59.39

PnL

+$3.6

Record

48%

24-26 (50)

Eulhunter<$100

Yujia Huang

Invested

$2.8

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$1.23

Record

53%

45-40 (85)

Research grade

NeutralYujia Huang at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yujia Huang

7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yujia Huang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYujia Huang 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYujia Huang 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYujia Huang 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yujia Huang 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yujia Huang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.