W35 Sao Paulo: Luisa Meyer auf der Heide vs Julia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Lima
3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Luisa Meyer auf der Heide (30%) · Luisa Meyer auf der Heide at 98¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 22
⚖️
Neutral
Luisa Meyer auf der Heide
10
Luisa Meyer auf der Heide 30%
$9.5K
$33.83
94.5¢ → 98.2¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLuisa Meyer auf der Heide at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295 | Luisa Meyer auf der Heideavg 94.5¢ | $8.7K | $9.1K | +$365.98 | 83% 30-6 (36) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG | Luisa Meyer auf der Heideavg 95.1¢ | $119.99 | $124.22 | +$4.23 | 39% 344-532 (876) |
SM smithagentCTR | Julia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Limaavg 5.2¢ | $377.05 | $111.83 | -$265.22 | 46% 882-1039 (1921) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Julia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Limaavg 8.2¢ | $82.98 | $91.21 | +$8.23 | 39% 1579-2471 (4050) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100 | Julia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Limaavg 5¢ | $31.37 | $33.57 | +$2.19 | 48% 638-680 (1318) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Julia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Limaavg 5.1¢ | $70.46 | $19.84 | -$45.53 | 48% 1307-1398 (2705) |
 poshposh<$100 | Luisa Meyer auf der Heideavg 95¢ | $19.09 | $18.98 | -$0.11 | 49% 1336-1411 (2747) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Julia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Limaavg 8¢ | $41.98 | $8.13 | -$33.85 | 48% 3968-4327 (8295) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Julia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Limaavg 6¢ | $0.75 | $0.98 | +$0.23 | 41% 739-1047 (1786) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Julia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Limaavg 5.4¢ | $3.24 | $0.93 | -$2.31 | 12% 63-448 (511) |
Invested
$8,696.33
Value
$9.1K
PnL
+$365.98
Record
83%
30-6 (36)
Invested
$119.99
Value
$124.22
PnL
+$4.23
Record
39%
344-532 (876)
Invested
$377.05
Value
$111.83
PnL
-$265.22
Record
46%
882-1039 (1921)
Invested
$82.98
Value
$91.21
PnL
+$8.23
Record
39%
1579-2471 (4050)
Invested
$31.37
Value
$33.57
PnL
+$2.19
Record
48%
638-680 (1318)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$70.46
Value
$19.84
PnL
-$45.53
Record
48%
1307-1398 (2705)
poshposh<$100Invested
$19.09
Value
$18.98
PnL
-$0.11
Record
49%
1336-1411 (2747)
Invested
$41.98
Value
$8.13
PnL
-$33.85
Record
48%
3968-4327 (8295)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.98
PnL
+$0.23
Record
41%
739-1047 (1786)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$0.93
PnL
-$2.31
Record
12%
63-448 (511)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295
Luisa Meyer auf der Heide — $9.1K
ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG
Luisa Meyer auf der Heide — $124.22
smithagent
CTRJulia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Lima — $111.83
topdogbigboi
CTRJulia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Lima — $91.21
CandleHammerDrums
CTRJulia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Lima — $33.57
dips.
CTRJulia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Lima — $19.84
poshposh
Luisa Meyer auf der Heide — $18.98
38791873984189
CTRJulia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Lima — $8.13
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRJulia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Lima — $0.98
0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107
CTRJulia Julia Cerqueira Carvalho Farias Lima — $0.93