Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Robert Guna, while the market favors Matias Reyniak (54%). 1 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

M15 Heraklion: Robert Guna vs Matias Reyniak

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Robert Guna (10%) · Robert Guna at 47¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19

Robert Guna47¢Matias Reyniak53¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Robert Guna

Consensus Traders

Robert Guna 10%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$63.29

Research grade

NeutralRobert Guna at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Robert Guna

1 of 10 top traders (10%)Underdog side (market favors Matias Reyniak 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Robert Guna47%

Matias Reyniak54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Matias Reyniak9 traders

Total Value$403.2

Total Shares1,148

Combined PnL+$86.13

Robert Guna1 trader

Total Value$196.07

Total Shares431

Combined PnL-$22.84

Matias Reyniak — 90%Robert Guna — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-73 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Robert Guna. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMatias Reyniak 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Matias Reyniak 90% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Robert Gunaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$724.5	-$325.5	54% 421-356 (777)
└ Robert Guna leg	Robert Gunaavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0
└ Matias Reyniak leg	Matias Reyniakavg 50¢	$525	$199.5	-$325.5
CA CandleHammerDrums	Matias Reyniakavg 26.3¢	$163.24	$220.24	+$57.01	47% 325-363 (688)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Robert Gunaavg 50.8¢	$218.92	$196.07	-$22.84	32% 289-611 (900)
SM smithagent<$100	Matias Reyniakavg 19¢	$34.39	$64.26	+$29.86	42% 336-456 (792)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Matias Reyniakavg 37.1¢	$31.41	$30.03	-$1.38	41% 244-358 (602)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Matias Reyniakavg 46¢	$48.58	$25.97	-$22.61	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
38 38791873984189<$100	Matias Reyniakavg 19¢	$11.43	$21.36	+$9.93	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
dips.<$100	Matias Reyniakavg 19¢	$9.88	$18.46	+$8.58	45% 519-642 (1161)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Matias Reyniakavg 34.2¢	$10.59	$10.99	+$0.4	37% 524-900 (1424)
poshposh<$100	Matias Reyniakavg 19¢	$5.75	$10.75	+$4.99	47% 507-572 (1079)
LI Limousin<$100	Matias Reyniakavg 30¢	$1.8	$1.14	-$0.66	32% 524-1097 (1621)

NotJumpARB<$100

Robert Guna

Invested

$1,050

Value

$724.5

PnL

-$325.5

Record

54%

421-356 (777)

Both legs:

Robert Guna$52550¢+$0

Matias Reyniak$52550¢-$325.5

CandleHammerDrums

Matias Reyniak

Invested

$163.24

Value

$220.24

PnL

+$57.01

Record

47%

325-363 (688)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Robert Guna

Invested

$218.92

Value

$196.07

PnL

-$22.84

Record

32%

289-611 (900)

smithagent<$100

Matias Reyniak

Invested

$34.39

Value

$64.26

PnL

+$29.86

Record

42%

336-456 (792)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Matias Reyniak

Invested

$31.41

Value

$30.03

PnL

-$1.38

Record

41%

244-358 (602)

Flaznorp<$100

Matias Reyniak

Invested

$48.58

Value

$25.97

PnL

-$22.61

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

38791873984189<$100

Matias Reyniak

Invested

$11.43

Value

$21.36

PnL

+$9.93

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

dips.<$100

Matias Reyniak

Invested

$9.88

Value

$18.46

PnL

+$8.58

Record

45%

519-642 (1161)

topdogbigboi<$100

Matias Reyniak

Invested

$10.59

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0.4

Record

37%

524-900 (1424)

poshposh<$100

Matias Reyniak

Invested

$5.75

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$4.99

Record

47%

507-572 (1079)

Limousin<$100

Matias Reyniak

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.66

Record

32%

524-1097 (1621)

Research grade

NeutralRobert Guna at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Robert Guna

1 of 10 top traders (10%)Underdog side (market favors Matias Reyniak 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-73 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Robert Guna. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMatias Reyniak 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Matias Reyniak 90% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Robert Guna wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.