Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Gavin Goode, while the market favors Youcef Rihane (84%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Naples, FL: Gavin Goode vs Youcef Rihane

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Gavin Goode (64%) · Gavin Goode at 16¢ · $864 held · ends Nov 19

Gavin Goode16¢Youcef Rihane84¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Gavin Goode

Consensus Traders

Gavin Goode 64%

Total Value

$863.77

Combined PnL

-$93.04

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 16¢

-64% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidGavin Goode at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gavin Goode

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Youcef Rihane 84%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Gavin Goode16%

Youcef Rihane84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Youcef Rihane4 traders

Total Value$562.36

Total Shares734

Combined PnL+$118.52

Gavin Goode7 traders

Total Value$301.41

Total Shares1,153

Combined PnL-$211.56

Youcef Rihane — 36%Gavin Goode — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Gavin Goode. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYoucef Rihane 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Gavin Goode 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Youcef Rihaneavg 66.1¢	$296.88	$356.87	+$60	48% 2306-2514 (4820)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9	Youcef Rihaneavg 50¢	$90.98	$120.1	+$29.11	3% 15-428 (443)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Gavin Goodeavg 48.4¢	$197.19	$109.89	-$87.3	54% 211-181 (392)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Youcef Rihaneavg 55¢	$51.33	$78.86	+$27.53	41% 294-417 (711)
CI cigarettesCTR	Gavin Goodeavg 47¢	$117.5	$67.5	-$50	53% 6255-5540 (11795)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Gavin Goodeavg 48¢	$80.32	$45.18	-$35.14	36% 556-976 (1532)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Gavin Goodeavg 27¢	$53.3	$40.51	-$12.79	33% 328-667 (995)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Gavin Goodeavg 47.2¢	$36.51	$20.91	-$7.8	49% 1093-1146 (2239)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Gavin Goodeavg 45.1¢	$25.96	$11.8	-$14.16	51% 2643-2567 (5210)
MA MadridTime<$100	Youcef Rihaneavg 47¢	$4.65	$6.53	+$1.88	34% 592-1166 (1758)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Gavin Goodeavg 48¢	$10	$5.62	-$4.37	44% 105-135 (240)

38791873984189

Youcef Rihane

Invested

$296.88

Value

$356.87

PnL

+$60

Record

48%

2306-2514 (4820)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9

Youcef Rihane

Invested

$90.98

Value

$120.1

PnL

+$29.11

Record

15-428 (443)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Gavin Goode

Invested

$197.19

Value

$109.89

PnL

-$87.3

Record

54%

211-181 (392)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Youcef Rihane

Invested

$51.33

Value

$78.86

PnL

+$27.53

Record

41%

294-417 (711)

cigarettesCTR

Gavin Goode

Invested

$117.5

Value

$67.5

PnL

-$50

Record

53%

6255-5540 (11795)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Gavin Goode

Invested

$80.32

Value

$45.18

PnL

-$35.14

Record

36%

556-976 (1532)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Gavin Goode

Invested

$53.3

Value

$40.51

PnL

-$12.79

Record

33%

328-667 (995)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Gavin Goode

Invested

$36.51

Value

$20.91

PnL

-$7.8

Record

49%

1093-1146 (2239)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Gavin Goode

Invested

$25.96

Value

$11.8

PnL

-$14.16

Record

51%

2643-2567 (5210)

MadridTime<$100

Youcef Rihane

Invested

$4.65

Value

$6.53

PnL

+$1.88

Record

34%

592-1166 (1758)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Gavin Goode

Invested

$10

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$4.37

Record

44%

105-135 (240)

Research grade

AvoidGavin Goode at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Gavin Goode

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Youcef Rihane 84%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Gavin Goode. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYoucef Rihane 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Gavin Goode 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gavin Goode wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.7%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$464.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

564.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.