Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pauline Gloeckner, while the market favors Sophie Ehrenbergerova (56%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
W15 Monastir: Pauline Gloeckner vs Sophie Ehrenbergerova
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pauline Gloeckner (63%) · Pauline Gloeckner at 44¢ · $368 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Pauline Gloeckner
8
Pauline Gloeckner 63%
$368.01
-$23.47
48.4¢ → 44¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralPauline Gloeckner at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Sophie Ehrenbergerova 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposhCTR | Pauline Gloeckneravg 46.8¢ | $271.68 | $275.65 | +$3.96 | 57% 12169-9271 (21440) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Pauline Gloeckneravg 64¢ | $53.31 | $37.98 | -$15.34 | 48% 58721-62631 (121352) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Sophie Ehrenbergerovaavg 51.2¢ | $20.5 | $21 | +$0.5 | 54% 1178-1008 (2186) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Pauline Gloeckneravg 36¢ | $10.8 | $14.25 | +$3.45 | 51% 24004-22756 (46760) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Sophie Ehrenbergerovaavg 61.4¢ | $27.32 | $11.58 | -$15.75 | 50% 20647-20936 (41583) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Sophie Ehrenbergerovaavg 45¢ | $4.26 | $3.95 | -$0.31 | 46% 1376-1620 (2996) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Pauline Gloeckneravg 56.2¢ | $3.15 | $3.14 | -$0.01 | 82% 6948-1498 (8446) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Pauline Gloeckneravg 45.2¢ | $0.45 | $0.48 | +$0.02 | 56% 8899-7117 (16016) |
poshposhCTRInvested
$271.68
Value
$275.65
PnL
+$3.96
Record
57%
12169-9271 (21440)
Invested
$53.31
Value
$37.98
PnL
-$15.34
Record
48%
58721-62631 (121352)
Invested
$20.5
Value
$21
PnL
+$0.5
Record
54%
1178-1008 (2186)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$14.25
PnL
+$3.45
Record
51%
24004-22756 (46760)
Invested
$27.32
Value
$11.58
PnL
-$15.75
Record
50%
20647-20936 (41583)
Invested
$4.26
Value
$3.95
PnL
-$0.31
Record
46%
1376-1620 (2996)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.14
PnL
-$0.01
Record
82%
6948-1498 (8446)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.48
PnL
+$0.02
Record
56%
8899-7117 (16016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
poshposh
CTRPauline Gloeckner — $275.65
38791873984189
CTRPauline Gloeckner — $37.98
Limousin
Sophie Ehrenbergerova — $21
Flaznorp
CTRPauline Gloeckner — $14.25
omnibus-076daa
Sophie Ehrenbergerova — $11.58
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Sophie Ehrenbergerova — $3.95
ARTEM-DZYUBA
CTRPauline Gloeckner — $3.14
User7429
CTRPauline Gloeckner — $0.48