W15 Maanshan: Xinle Geng vs Xichen Zhao

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Xinle Geng (80%) · Xinle Geng at 61¢ · $776 held · ends Nov 18

Xinle Geng61¢Xichen Zhao39¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xinle Geng

Consensus Traders

Xinle Geng 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$775.9

Combined PnL

-$43.53

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 61¢

-10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralXinle Geng at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xinle Geng

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Xinle Geng61%

Xichen Zhao39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xinle Geng4 traders

Total Value$312.66

Total Shares520

Combined PnL-$42.16

Xichen Zhao1 trader

Total Value$3.91

Total Shares11

Combined PnL-$1.38

Xinle Geng — 80%Xichen Zhao — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Xinle Gengavg 71¢	$309.7	$281.37	-$28.33	51% 1779-1735 (3514)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Xichen Zhaoavg 55.8¢	$526.37	$249.14	+$78.99	48% 1202-1284 (2486)
└ Xichen Zhao leg	Xichen Zhaoavg 55.8¢	$149.02	$140.24	+$54.97
└ Xinle Geng leg	Xinle Gengavg 37¢	$84.88	$108.9	+$24.02
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Xinle Gengavg 24.3¢	$168.41	$210.2	+$41.79	53% 1763-1567 (3330)
└ Xinle Geng leg	Xinle Gengavg 24.3¢	$99.85	$129.23	+$29.38
└ Xichen Zhao leg	Xichen Zhaoavg 58¢	$68.56	$80.97	+$12.41
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Xinle Gengavg 60.7¢	$38.77	$15.6	-$10.79	27% 142-383 (525)
alpheclabs2<$100	Xinle Gengavg 29¢	$4.16	$9.25	+$5.09	46% 104-122 (226)
US User7429<$100	Xinle Gengavg 52¢	$14.58	$6.45	-$8.13	23% 98-336 (434)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Xichen Zhaoavg 48¢	$5.28	$3.91	-$1.38	46% 225-259 (484)

Flaznorp

Xinle Geng

Invested

$309.7

Value

$281.37

PnL

-$28.33

Record

51%

1779-1735 (3514)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Xichen Zhao

Invested

$526.37

Value

$249.14

PnL

+$78.99

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

Both legs:

Xichen Zhao$149.0255.8¢+$54.97

Xinle Geng$84.8837¢+$24.02

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Xinle Geng

Invested

$168.41

Value

$210.2

PnL

+$41.79

Record

53%

1763-1567 (3330)

Both legs:

Xinle Geng$99.8524.3¢+$29.38

Xichen Zhao$68.5658¢+$12.41

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Xinle Geng

Invested

$38.77

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$10.79

Record

27%

142-383 (525)

alpheclabs2<$100

Xinle Geng

Invested

$4.16

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$5.09

Record

46%

104-122 (226)

User7429<$100

Xinle Geng

Invested

$14.58

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$8.13

Record

23%

98-336 (434)

lryyyCTR<$100

Xichen Zhao

Invested

$5.28

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$1.38

Record

46%

225-259 (484)

Research grade

NeutralXinle Geng at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Xinle Geng

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xinle Geng wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.