Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ikumi Yamazaki, while the market favors Xinle Geng (51%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

W15 Maanshan: Xinle Geng vs Ikumi Yamazaki

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ikumi Yamazaki (33%) · Ikumi Yamazaki at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Xinle Geng51¢Ikumi Yamazaki49¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ikumi Yamazaki

Consensus Traders

Ikumi Yamazaki 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$10.12

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 49¢

-15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralIkumi Yamazaki at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ikumi Yamazaki

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Xinle Geng 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xinle Geng51%

Ikumi Yamazaki49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xinle Geng6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,019

Combined PnL+$10.37

Ikumi Yamazaki3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,885

Combined PnL-$20.5

Xinle Geng — 67%Ikumi Yamazaki — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Xinle Gengavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	54% 386-329 (715)
PR prabamCTR	Ikumi Yamazakiavg 58¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$27.46	— 9-4 (13)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Xinle Gengavg 50¢	$264.26	$256.88	-$7.37	32% 266-576 (842)
TO topdogbigboi	Xinle Gengavg 42.2¢	$98.15	$113.17	+$15.02	37% 470-810 (1280)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Xinle Gengavg 42¢	$69.94	$78.03	+$8.1	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
└ Xinle Geng leg	Xinle Gengavg 42¢	$44.1	$54.6	+$10.5
└ Ikumi Yamazaki leg	Ikumi Yamazakiavg 52.9¢	$25.84	$23.43	-$2.4
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Xinle Gengavg 42¢	$58.25	$60.33	+$2.08	51% 1975-1866 (3841)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Xinle Gengavg 43¢	$56.84	$57.82	+$0.98	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Ikumi Yamazakiavg 50¢	$50.53	$57.57	+$7.04	47% 303-337 (640)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Xinle Gengavg 45¢	$10	$9.67	-$0.33	49% 76-78 (154)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Ikumi Yamazakiavg 57¢	$9.12	$9.04	-$0.08	45% 341-422 (763)

NotJump

Xinle Geng

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

386-329 (715)

prabamCTR

Ikumi Yamazaki

Invested

$1,032.59

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$27.46

Record

—

9-4 (13)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Xinle Geng

Invested

$264.26

Value

$256.88

PnL

-$7.37

Record

32%

266-576 (842)

topdogbigboi

Xinle Geng

Invested

$98.15

Value

$113.17

PnL

+$15.02

Record

37%

470-810 (1280)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Xinle Geng

Invested

$69.94

Value

$78.03

PnL

+$8.1

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

Both legs:

Xinle Geng$44.142¢+$10.5

Ikumi Yamazaki$25.8452.9¢-$2.4

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Xinle Geng

Invested

$58.25

Value

$60.33

PnL

+$2.08

Record

51%

1975-1866 (3841)

Flaznorp<$100

Xinle Geng

Invested

$56.84

Value

$57.82

PnL

+$0.98

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Ikumi Yamazaki

Invested

$50.53

Value

$57.57

PnL

+$7.04

Record

47%

303-337 (640)

glennyorkshire<$100

Xinle Geng

Invested

$10

Value

$9.67

PnL

-$0.33

Record

49%

76-78 (154)

lryyyCTR<$100

Ikumi Yamazaki

Invested

$9.12

Value

$9.04

PnL

-$0.08

Record

45%

341-422 (763)

Research grade

NeutralIkumi Yamazaki at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ikumi Yamazaki

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Xinle Geng 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ikumi Yamazaki wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.