M15 Monastir: Liam Gavrielides vs Julien Penzlin

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Julien Penzlin (90%) · Julien Penzlin at 98¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 21

Liam Gavrielides3¢Julien Penzlin97¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Julien Penzlin

Consensus Traders

Julien Penzlin 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$578.56

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 97.5¢

+38% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralJulien Penzlin at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Julien Penzlin

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Liam Gavrielides3%

Julien Penzlin98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Julien Penzlin9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,365

Combined PnL+$563.14

Liam Gavrielides1 trader

Total Value$116.17

Total Shares290

Combined PnL+$15.42

Julien Penzlin — 90%Liam Gavrielides — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Julien Penzlin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJulien Penzlin 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Julien Penzlin 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Julien Penzlinavg 73.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$86	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Julien Penzlinavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.5	52% 802-736 (1538)
└ Julien Penzlin leg	Julien Penzlinavg 50¢	$525	$630	+$105
└ Liam Gavrielides leg	Liam Gavrielidesavg 50¢	$525	$430.5	-$94.5
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Julien Penzlinavg 65.7¢	$543.67	$798.88	+$255.21	50% 2500-2457 (4957)
38 38791873984189	Julien Penzlinavg 73.1¢	$900.03	$773.73	+$218.08	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
poshposh	Julien Penzlinavg 76¢	$456	$474	+$18	48% 1079-1157 (2236)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Julien Penzlinavg 61¢	$189.1	$186	-$3.1	48% 508-541 (1049)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Liam Gavrielidesavg 34.7¢	$100.75	$116.17	+$15.42	46% 479-564 (1043)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Julien Penzlinavg 69¢	$127.71	$111.05	-$16.66	38% 530-872 (1402)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Julien Penzlinavg 60¢	$60	$60	-$0	43% 354-460 (814)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Julien Penzlinavg 33¢	$7.07	$12.85	+$5.78	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
SM smithagent<$100	Julien Penzlinavg 75¢	$5.32	$5.14	-$0.18	45% 644-802 (1446)

cigarettes

Julien Penzlin

Invested

$1,099

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$86

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

NotJumpARB<$100

Julien Penzlin

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.5

Record

52%

802-736 (1538)

Both legs:

Julien Penzlin$52550¢+$105

Liam Gavrielides$52550¢-$94.5

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Julien Penzlin

Invested

$543.67

Value

$798.88

PnL

+$255.21

Record

50%

2500-2457 (4957)

38791873984189

Julien Penzlin

Invested

$900.03

Value

$773.73

PnL

+$218.08

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

poshposh

Julien Penzlin

Invested

$456

Value

$474

PnL

+$18

Record

48%

1079-1157 (2236)

CandleHammerDrums

Julien Penzlin

Invested

$189.1

Value

$186

PnL

-$3.1

Record

48%

508-541 (1049)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Liam Gavrielides

Invested

$100.75

Value

$116.17

PnL

+$15.42

Record

46%

479-564 (1043)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Julien Penzlin

Invested

$127.71

Value

$111.05

PnL

-$16.66

Record

38%

530-872 (1402)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Julien Penzlin

Invested

$60

Value

$60

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

354-460 (814)

Flaznorp<$100

Julien Penzlin

Invested

$7.07

Value

$12.85

PnL

+$5.78

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

smithagent<$100

Julien Penzlin

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.14

PnL

-$0.18

Record

45%

644-802 (1446)

Research grade

NeutralJulien Penzlin at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Julien Penzlin

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Julien Penzlin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJulien Penzlin 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Julien Penzlin 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Julien Penzlin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.