W75 Brisbane: Joanna Garland vs Sijia Wei

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Joanna Garland (86%) · Joanna Garland at 77¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Joanna Garland77¢Sijia Wei23¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Joanna Garland

Consensus Traders

Joanna Garland 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$44.39

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 76.5¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJoanna Garland at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Joanna Garland

6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Joanna Garland77%

Sijia Wei24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Joanna Garland6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,745

Combined PnL+$81.73

Sijia Wei1 trader

Total Value$387.07

Total Shares1,335

Combined PnL-$126.12

Joanna Garland — 86%Sijia Wei — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Joanna Garland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSijia Wei 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Joanna Garland 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Joanna Garlandavg 52¢	$968.48	$1.2K	+$339.77	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
└ Joanna Garland leg	Joanna Garlandavg 52¢	$659.36	$830.54	+$171.18
└ Sijia Wei leg	Sijia Weiavg 24¢	$249.84	$359.15	+$168.58
FL Flaznorp	Joanna Garlandavg 63.6¢	$621.61	$693.67	+$72.06	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
7C 0x7c1e...bab3	Joanna Garlandavg 76¢	$421.8	$421.8	+$0	—
00 0000.CTR	Sijia Weiavg 38.4¢	$513.2	$387.07	-$126.12	32% 9-19 (28)
RN1ARB<$100	Joanna Garlandavg 76¢	$306.28	$247	-$59.28	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Joanna Garland leg	Joanna Garlandavg 76¢	$187.72	$128.44	-$59.28
└ Sijia Wei leg	Sijia Weiavg 48¢	$118.56	$118.56	+$0
38 38791873984189<$100	Joanna Garlandavg 76¢	$77.53	$75.7	-$1.83	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
SE sentrio<$100	Joanna Garlandavg 62¢	$65.68	$75.21	+$9.53	39% 395-620 (1015)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Joanna Garlandavg 61¢	$10	$11.64	+$1.64	49% 58-61 (119)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Joanna Garlandavg 52¢	$2.88	$3.22	+$0.33	49% 118-121 (239)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Joanna Garland

Invested

$968.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$339.77

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Both legs:

Joanna Garland$659.3652¢+$171.18

Sijia Wei$249.8424¢+$168.58

Flaznorp

Joanna Garland

Invested

$621.61

Value

$693.67

PnL

+$72.06

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0x7c1e...bab3

Joanna Garland

Invested

$421.8

Value

$421.8

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0000.CTR

Sijia Wei

Invested

$513.2

Value

$387.07

PnL

-$126.12

Record

32%

9-19 (28)

RN1ARB<$100

Joanna Garland

Invested

$306.28

Value

$247

PnL

-$59.28

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Joanna Garland$187.7276¢-$59.28

Sijia Wei$118.5648¢+$0

38791873984189<$100

Joanna Garland

Invested

$77.53

Value

$75.7

PnL

-$1.83

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

sentrio<$100

Joanna Garland

Invested

$65.68

Value

$75.21

PnL

+$9.53

Record

39%

395-620 (1015)

glennyorkshire<$100

Joanna Garland

Invested

$10

Value

$11.64

PnL

+$1.64

Record

49%

58-61 (119)

Eulhunter<$100

Joanna Garland

Invested

$2.88

Value

$3.22

PnL

+$0.33

Record

49%

118-121 (239)

Research grade

NeutralJoanna Garland at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Joanna Garland

6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Joanna Garland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSijia Wei 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Joanna Garland 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Joanna Garland wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.