W75 Brisbane: Joanna Garland vs Hikaru Sato
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Joanna Garland (67%) · Joanna Garland at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Joanna Garland
6
Joanna Garland 67%
$2.7K
-$211.48
85.1¢ → 94¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJoanna Garland at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL glennyorkshire | Joanna Garlandavg 84¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$35.71 | 46% 36-42 (78) |
 RN1 | Joanna Garlandavg 90¢ | $455 | $462.73 | +$7.73 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Hikaru Satoavg 13.5¢ | $222.87 | $98.7 | -$124.17 | 54% 1662-1438 (3100) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Hikaru Satoavg 12.2¢ | $114.81 | $59.67 | -$55.14 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Joanna Garlandavg 90¢ | $53.97 | $50.13 | -$3.84 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Joanna Garlandavg 85¢ | $23.12 | $22.78 | -$0.34 | 49% 84-87 (171) |
Invested
$1,999.95
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$35.71
Record
46%
36-42 (78)
RN1Invested
$455
Value
$462.73
PnL
+$7.73
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$222.87
Value
$98.7
PnL
-$124.17
Record
54%
1662-1438 (3100)
Invested
$114.81
Value
$59.67
PnL
-$55.14
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$53.97
Value
$50.13
PnL
-$3.84
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$23.12
Value
$22.78
PnL
-$0.34
Record
49%
84-87 (171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.