W35 Weston, FL: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Carolina Kuhl

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Aran Teixido Garcia (78%) · Aran Teixido Garcia at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Aran Teixido Garcia82¢Carolina Kuhl18¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aran Teixido Garcia

Consensus Traders

Aran Teixido Garcia 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$68.35

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 81.5¢

+22% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAran Teixido Garcia at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aran Teixido Garcia

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aran Teixido Garcia82%

Carolina Kuhl19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aran Teixido Garcia7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,458

Combined PnL+$89.82

Carolina Kuhl2 traders

Total Value$19.04

Total Shares101

Combined PnL-$21.47

Aran Teixido Garcia — 78%Carolina Kuhl — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Aran Teixido Garcia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCarolina Kuhl 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedAran Teixido Garcia 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Aran Teixido Garcia 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Carolina Kuhlavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	54% 475-399 (874)
└ Aran Teixido Garcia leg	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 50¢	$525	$798	+$273
└ Carolina Kuhl leg	Carolina Kuhlavg 50¢	$525	$252	-$273
FL Flaznorp	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 68.9¢	$685.93	$732.95	+$47.03	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
RN1	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 61.1¢	$223.97	$237.67	+$13.69	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
38 38791873984189<$100	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 59¢	$67.13	$86.47	+$19.34	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 76.6¢	$52.59	$52.17	-$0.42	48% 350-384 (734)
LR lryyy<$100	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 58¢	$24.11	$31.59	+$7.48	44% 405-509 (914)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Carolina Kuhlavg 39.9¢	$38.46	$17.84	-$20.62	42% 291-408 (699)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 59¢	$6.49	$8.36	+$1.87	30% 176-402 (578)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 59¢	$2.88	$3.71	+$0.83	41% 265-378 (643)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Carolina Kuhlavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.2	-$0.85	50% 143-143 (286)

NotJumpARB<$100

Carolina Kuhl

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

475-399 (874)

Both legs:

Aran Teixido Garcia$52550¢+$273

Carolina Kuhl$52550¢-$273

Flaznorp

Aran Teixido Garcia

Invested

$685.93

Value

$732.95

PnL

+$47.03

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

RN1

Aran Teixido Garcia

Invested

$223.97

Value

$237.67

PnL

+$13.69

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

38791873984189<$100

Aran Teixido Garcia

Invested

$67.13

Value

$86.47

PnL

+$19.34

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Aran Teixido Garcia

Invested

$52.59

Value

$52.17

PnL

-$0.42

Record

48%

350-384 (734)

lryyy<$100

Aran Teixido Garcia

Invested

$24.11

Value

$31.59

PnL

+$7.48

Record

44%

405-509 (914)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Carolina Kuhl

Invested

$38.46

Value

$17.84

PnL

-$20.62

Record

42%

291-408 (699)

thestingsnake<$100

Aran Teixido Garcia

Invested

$6.49

Value

$8.36

PnL

+$1.87

Record

30%

176-402 (578)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Aran Teixido Garcia

Invested

$2.88

Value

$3.71

PnL

+$0.83

Record

41%

265-378 (643)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Carolina Kuhl

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$0.85

Record

50%

143-143 (286)

Research grade

NeutralAran Teixido Garcia at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aran Teixido Garcia

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Aran Teixido Garcia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCarolina Kuhl 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedAran Teixido Garcia 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Aran Teixido Garcia 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aran Teixido Garcia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.