Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jana Hossam Salah, while the market favors Rachel Gailis (55%). 10 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

W35 Weston, FL: Rachel Gailis vs Jana Hossam Salah

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Jana Hossam Salah (63%) · Jana Hossam Salah at 46¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 22

Rachel Gailis55¢Jana Hossam Salah45¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jana Hossam Salah

Consensus Traders

Jana Hossam Salah 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$567.64

Smart Money Entry

32.7¢ → 45.5¢

+39% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralJana Hossam Salah at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jana Hossam Salah

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Rachel Gailis 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rachel Gailis55%

Jana Hossam Salah46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jana Hossam Salah10 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares7,073

Combined PnL+$602.52

Rachel Gailis6 traders

Total Value$564.27

Total Shares1,008

Combined PnL-$34.88

Jana Hossam Salah — 63%Rachel Gailis — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Jana Hossam Salahavg 34.4¢	$903.2	$1.4K	+$448.63	48% 638-680 (1318)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Jana Hossam Salahavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+$0.32	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
└ Rachel Gailis leg	Rachel Gailisavg 50¢	$514.46	$550.47	+$37.07
└ Jana Hossam Salah leg	Jana Hossam Salahavg 50¢	$525	$488.25	-$36.75
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Jana Hossam Salahavg 33.7¢	$719.79	$886.39	+$166.59	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Rachel Gailisavg 70.4¢	$438.49	$295.95	-$142.55	41% 739-1047 (1786)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Jana Hossam Salahavg 26.3¢	$248.88	$260.59	+$11.72	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jana Hossam Salahavg 34.1¢	$515.23	$192.28	-$38.99	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
TH thestingsnake	Rachel Gailisavg 53.1¢	$198.98	$186.18	+$125.55	36% 256-453 (709)
CI cigarettesCTR	Jana Hossam Salahavg 24¢	$98.52	$106.72	+$8.21	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
poshposhCTR<$100	Jana Hossam Salahavg 35¢	$52.5	$55.5	+$3	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 51¢	$65.78	$51.59	-$14.19	46% 643-756 (1399)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Jana Hossam Salahavg 46.2¢	$43.83	$48.43	+$4.6	46% 479-565 (1044)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 60.5¢	$12.7	$13.23	+$0.53	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 64¢	$13.55	$10.05	-$1.5	53% 220-193 (413)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 55¢	$10	$7.27	-$2.73	47% 226-251 (477)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Jana Hossam Salahavg 23.5¢	$8.36	$6.23	-$2.13	46% 882-1039 (1921)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jana Hossam Salahavg 45¢	$4.56	$5.17	+$0.61	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Jana Hossam Salahavg 28.2¢	$1.78	$2.06	+$0.27	45% 984-1181 (2165)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$903.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$448.63

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

NotJumpARB<$100

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Both legs:

Rachel Gailis$514.4650¢+$37.07

Jana Hossam Salah$52550¢-$36.75

topdogbigboiCTR

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$719.79

Value

$886.39

PnL

+$166.59

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$438.49

Value

$295.95

PnL

-$142.55

Record

41%

739-1047 (1786)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$248.88

Value

$260.59

PnL

+$11.72

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

38791873984189CTR

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$515.23

Value

$192.28

PnL

-$38.99

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

thestingsnake

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$198.98

Value

$186.18

PnL

+$125.55

Record

36%

256-453 (709)

cigarettesCTR

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$98.52

Value

$106.72

PnL

+$8.21

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

poshposhCTR<$100

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$52.5

Value

$55.5

PnL

+$3

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$65.78

Value

$51.59

PnL

-$14.19

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$43.83

Value

$48.43

PnL

+$4.6

Record

46%

479-565 (1044)

Flaznorp<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$12.7

Value

$13.23

PnL

+$0.53

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Eulhunter<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$13.55

Value

$10.05

PnL

-$1.5

Record

53%

220-193 (413)

glennyorkshire<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$10

Value

$7.27

PnL

-$2.73

Record

47%

226-251 (477)

smithagentCTR<$100

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$8.36

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$2.13

Record

46%

882-1039 (1921)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$4.56

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0.61

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

lryyyCTR<$100

Jana Hossam Salah

Invested

$1.78

Value

$2.06

PnL

+$0.27

Record

45%

984-1181 (2165)

Research grade

NeutralJana Hossam Salah at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jana Hossam Salah

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Rachel Gailis 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jana Hossam Salah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.