W35 Weston, FL: Rachel Gailis vs Carolina Bohrer Martins
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Rachel Gailis (80%) · Rachel Gailis at 62¢ · $832 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Rachel Gailis
5
Rachel Gailis 80%
1 arb excluded
$831.79
$220.96
31.9¢ → 61.5¢
+93% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralRachel Gailis at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Rachel Gailis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Carolina Bohrer Martinsavg 57.4¢ | $265.14 | $327.74 | +$80.42 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
| └ Rachel Gailis leg | Rachel Gailisavg 23.6¢ | $83.48 | $203.22 | +$120.33 | |
| └ Carolina Bohrer Martins leg | Carolina Bohrer Martinsavg 57.4¢ | $168.16 | $124.53 | -$39.91 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Rachel Gailisavg 25.7¢ | $132.25 | $295.38 | +$163.13 | 53% 1851-1666 (3517) |
FL Flaznorp | Rachel Gailisavg 41.5¢ | $119.03 | $164.91 | +$45.88 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Rachel Gailisavg 38¢ | $19 | $28 | +$9 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Rachel Gailisavg 39.3¢ | $5.9 | $8.63 | +$2.72 | 27% 143-385 (528) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Carolina Bohrer Martinsavg 42¢ | $9.1 | $7.13 | +$0.23 | 50% 118-119 (237) |
Invested
$265.14
Value
$327.74
PnL
+$80.42
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Both legs:
Invested
$132.25
Value
$295.38
PnL
+$163.13
Record
53%
1851-1666 (3517)
Invested
$119.03
Value
$164.91
PnL
+$45.88
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$19
Value
$28
PnL
+$9
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$8.63
PnL
+$2.72
Record
27%
143-385 (528)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$7.13
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
118-119 (237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.