W35 Weston, FL: Rachel Gailis vs Aran Teixido Garcia

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rachel Gailis (67%) · Rachel Gailis at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 21

Rachel Gailis88¢Aran Teixido Garcia12¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rachel Gailis

Consensus Traders

Rachel Gailis 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$257.82

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 87.5¢

+49% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralRachel Gailis at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rachel Gailis

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rachel Gailis88%

Aran Teixido Garcia13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rachel Gailis4 traders

Total Value$822.59

Total Shares921

Combined PnL+$255.16

Aran Teixido Garcia2 traders

Total Value$194.73

Total Shares470

Combined PnL+$2.66

Rachel Gailis — 67%Aran Teixido Garcia — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Rachel Gailisavg 59¢	$552.8	$807.29	+$254.49	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 40.6¢	$188.91	$192.98	+$4.06	49% 525-557 (1082)
RN1ARB<$100	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 37.9¢	$189.33	$181.32	-$8.01	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
└ Aran Teixido Garcia leg	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 37.9¢	$121	$132.57	+$11.58
└ Rachel Gailis leg	Rachel Gailisavg 82¢	$68.33	$48.75	-$19.58
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 30¢	$81.73	$111.92	+$30.18	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
└ Rachel Gailis leg	Rachel Gailisavg 41¢	$39.55	$62.71	+$23.15
└ Aran Teixido Garcia leg	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 30¢	$42.18	$49.21	+$7.03
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 40.5¢	$59.51	$66.83	+$7.32	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
└ Aran Teixido Garcia leg	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 40.5¢	$35.68	$36.52	+$0.84
└ Rachel Gailis leg	Rachel Gailisavg 46¢	$23.83	$30.31	+$6.48
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 44.9¢	$8.19	$8.58	+$0.39	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.95	+$0.1	34% 220-436 (656)
LI LightParadox<$100	Rachel Gailisavg 43¢	$2.59	$2.77	+$0.18	37% 977-1669 (2646)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Aran Teixido Garciaavg 63¢	$3.15	$1.75	-$1.4	46% 497-591 (1088)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$552.8

Value

$807.29

PnL

+$254.49

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Aran Teixido Garcia

Invested

$188.91

Value

$192.98

PnL

+$4.06

Record

49%

525-557 (1082)

RN1ARB<$100

Aran Teixido Garcia

Invested

$189.33

Value

$181.32

PnL

-$8.01

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Both legs:

Aran Teixido Garcia$12137.9¢+$11.58

Rachel Gailis$68.3382¢-$19.58

FlaznorpARB<$100

Aran Teixido Garcia

Invested

$81.73

Value

$111.92

PnL

+$30.18

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

Both legs:

Rachel Gailis$39.5541¢+$23.15

Aran Teixido Garcia$42.1830¢+$7.03

38791873984189ARB<$100

Aran Teixido Garcia

Invested

$59.51

Value

$66.83

PnL

+$7.32

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Both legs:

Aran Teixido Garcia$35.6840.5¢+$0.84

Rachel Gailis$23.8346¢+$6.48

topdogbigboi<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$8.19

Value

$8.58

PnL

+$0.39

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

thestingsnake<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.1

Record

34%

220-436 (656)

LightParadox<$100

Rachel Gailis

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.77

PnL

+$0.18

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Aran Teixido Garcia

Invested

$3.15

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$1.4

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

Research grade

NeutralRachel Gailis at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rachel Gailis

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rachel Gailis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.