W75 Brisbane: Olivia Gadecki vs Savannah Broadus
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Olivia Gadecki (80%) · Olivia Gadecki at 88¢ · $598 held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Olivia Gadecki
5
Olivia Gadecki 80%
$598.21
$71.87
73¢ → 88¢
+21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOlivia Gadecki at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Olivia Gadecki. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Olivia Gadeckiavg 72.7¢ | $237.67 | $283.84 | +$46.17 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
 RN1 | Olivia Gadeckiavg 73.5¢ | $229.32 | $269.91 | +$40.59 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Savannah Broadusavg 26¢ | $38.21 | $21.56 | -$16.65 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Olivia Gadeckiavg 77.7¢ | $16.55 | $14.4 | -$1.05 | 50% 118-119 (237) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Olivia Gadeckiavg 57¢ | $5.7 | $8.5 | +$2.8 | 49% 57-60 (117) |
Invested
$237.67
Value
$283.84
PnL
+$46.17
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
RN1Invested
$229.32
Value
$269.91
PnL
+$40.59
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$38.21
Value
$21.56
PnL
-$16.65
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$16.55
Value
$14.4
PnL
-$1.05
Record
50%
118-119 (237)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$8.5
PnL
+$2.8
Record
49%
57-60 (117)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.