M25 Columbus, OH: Matthew Forbes vs Jack Anthrop

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jack Anthrop (57%) · Jack Anthrop at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 21

Matthew Forbes28¢Jack Anthrop72¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jack Anthrop

Consensus Traders

Jack Anthrop 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$53.61

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 71.5¢

+48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJack Anthrop at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jack Anthrop

4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Matthew Forbes28%

Jack Anthrop72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jack Anthrop4 traders

Total Value$907.35

Total Shares1,548

Combined PnL+$53.59

Matthew Forbes3 traders

Total Value$309.58

Total Shares622

Combined PnL+$0.01

Jack Anthrop — 57%Matthew Forbes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Jack Anthrop. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJack Anthrop 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Jack Anthrop 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Matthew Forbesavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$147	52% 828-769 (1597)
└ Jack Anthrop leg	Jack Anthropavg 50¢	$525	$661.5	+$136.5
└ Matthew Forbes leg	Matthew Forbesavg 50¢	$525	$535.5	+$10.5
OM omnibus-076daa	Jack Anthropavg 47.7¢	$783.81	$853.81	+$70	46% 496-589 (1085)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	Jack Anthropavg 62¢	$472.94	$337.09	-$77.87	45% 136-163 (299)
└ Jack Anthrop leg	Jack Anthropavg 62¢	$222.26	$182.74	-$57.84
└ Matthew Forbes leg	Matthew Forbesavg 55.4¢	$174.38	$154.35	-$20.03
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Matthew Forbesavg 49.3¢	$245.28	$246.29	+$1.01	38% 550-886 (1436)
RN1ARB<$100	Matthew Forbesavg 38¢	$164.59	$186.49	+$21.9	55% 5370-4319 (9689)
└ Matthew Forbes leg	Matthew Forbesavg 38¢	$99.56	$133.62	+$34.06
└ Jack Anthrop leg	Jack Anthropavg 60.3¢	$65.03	$52.87	-$12.16
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Matthew Forbesavg 37¢	$138.8	$154.92	+$16.12	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
└ Matthew Forbes leg	Matthew Forbesavg 37¢	$74	$102	+$28
└ Jack Anthrop leg	Jack Anthropavg 60¢	$64.8	$52.92	-$11.88
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Matthew Forbesavg 51.9¢	$59.65	$58.65	-$1	44% 377-472 (849)
38 38791873984189	Jack Anthropavg 58.2¢	$418.45	$38.7	-$14.76	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
SM smithagent<$100	Jack Anthropavg 62¢	$14.26	$11.27	-$2.99	45% 659-820 (1479)
poshposhCTR<$100	Matthew Forbesavg 51¢	$4.64	$4.64	+$0	48% 1130-1207 (2337)
dips.<$100	Jack Anthropavg 37¢	$2.22	$3.57	+$1.35	47% 971-1102 (2073)

NotJumpARB<$100

Matthew Forbes

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$147

Record

52%

828-769 (1597)

Both legs:

Jack Anthrop$52550¢+$136.5

Matthew Forbes$52550¢+$10.5

omnibus-076daa

Jack Anthrop

Invested

$783.81

Value

$853.81

PnL

+$70

Record

46%

496-589 (1085)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

Jack Anthrop

Invested

$472.94

Value

$337.09

PnL

-$77.87

Record

45%

136-163 (299)

Both legs:

Jack Anthrop$222.2662¢-$57.84

Matthew Forbes$174.3855.4¢-$20.03

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Matthew Forbes

Invested

$245.28

Value

$246.29

PnL

+$1.01

Record

38%

550-886 (1436)

RN1ARB<$100

Matthew Forbes

Invested

$164.59

Value

$186.49

PnL

+$21.9

Record

55%

5370-4319 (9689)

Both legs:

Matthew Forbes$99.5638¢+$34.06

Jack Anthrop$65.0360.3¢-$12.16

FlaznorpARB<$100

Matthew Forbes

Invested

$138.8

Value

$154.92

PnL

+$16.12

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

Both legs:

Matthew Forbes$7437¢+$28

Jack Anthrop$64.860¢-$11.88

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Matthew Forbes

Invested

$59.65

Value

$58.65

PnL

-$1

Record

44%

377-472 (849)

38791873984189

Jack Anthrop

Invested

$418.45

Value

$38.7

PnL

-$14.76

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

smithagent<$100

Jack Anthrop

Invested

$14.26

Value

$11.27

PnL

-$2.99

Record

45%

659-820 (1479)

poshposhCTR<$100

Matthew Forbes

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.64

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1130-1207 (2337)

dips.<$100

Jack Anthrop

Invested

$2.22

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$1.35

Record

47%

971-1102 (2073)

Research grade

NeutralJack Anthrop at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jack Anthrop

4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Jack Anthrop. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJack Anthrop 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Jack Anthrop 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jack Anthrop wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.