M25 Santa Cruz do Sul: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Pedro Sakamoto
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pedro Sakamoto (63%) · Pedro Sakamoto at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
Pedro Sakamoto
8
Pedro Sakamoto 63%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$171.55
65.7¢ → 76¢
+16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralPedro Sakamoto at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotJumpARB<$100 | Pedro Sakamotoavg 50¢ | $1.1K | $760 | -$75 | 52% 833-779 (1612) |
| └ Pedro Sakamoto leg | Pedro Sakamotoavg 50¢ | $525 | $441 | -$84 | |
| └ Juan Pablo Ficovich leg | Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 50¢ | $275 | $319 | +$9 | |
FL Flaznorp | Pedro Sakamotoavg 68.4¢ | $580.74 | $650.73 | +$69.99 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 52.4¢ | $220.24 | $90.45 | -$129.79 | 46% 497-591 (1088) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 47.7¢ | $291.32 | $59.1 | -$84.68 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Pedro Sakamotoavg 58¢ | $79.99 | $57.93 | -$22.07 | 50% 2532-2495 (5027) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Pedro Sakamotoavg 48¢ | $24.84 | $21.74 | -$3.11 | 37% 1039-1757 (2796) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | Juan Pablo Ficovichavg 57¢ | $10 | $10.35 | +$0.35 | 44% 164-206 (370) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100 | Pedro Sakamotoavg 57¢ | $8.55 | $6.3 | -$2.25 | 45% 381-474 (855) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Pedro Sakamotoavg 42¢ | $2.21 | $2.21 | +$0 | 55% 474-384 (858) |
Invested
$1,050
Value
$760
PnL
-$75
Record
52%
833-779 (1612)
Both legs:
Invested
$580.74
Value
$650.73
PnL
+$69.99
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Invested
$220.24
Value
$90.45
PnL
-$129.79
Record
46%
497-591 (1088)
Invested
$291.32
Value
$59.1
PnL
-$84.68
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
Invested
$79.99
Value
$57.93
PnL
-$22.07
Record
50%
2532-2495 (5027)
Invested
$24.84
Value
$21.74
PnL
-$3.11
Record
37%
1039-1757 (2796)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.35
PnL
+$0.35
Record
44%
164-206 (370)
Invested
$8.55
Value
$6.3
PnL
-$2.25
Record
45%
381-474 (855)
Invested
$2.21
Value
$2.21
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
474-384 (858)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
NotJump
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Flaznorp
Pedro Sakamoto — $650.73
omnibus-076daa
CTRJuan Pablo Ficovich — $90.45
38791873984189
CTRJuan Pablo Ficovich — $59.1
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Pedro Sakamoto — $57.93
topdogbigboi
Pedro Sakamoto — $21.74
glennyorkshire
CTRJuan Pablo Ficovich — $10.35
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
Pedro Sakamoto — $6.3
LeLynxMalynx
Pedro Sakamoto — $2.21