M15 Roldan: Juan Estevez vs Murkel Dellien
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Estevez (50%) · Juan Estevez at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
Juan Estevez
10
Juan Estevez 50%
$1.7K
-$47.6
62¢ → 69.5¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralJuan Estevez at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh | Juan Estevezavg 62¢ | $372 | $378 | +$6 | 48% 1095-1172 (2267) |
LI LimousinCTR | Murkel Dellienavg 38¢ | $310.93 | $315.02 | +$4.09 | 36% 928-1642 (2570) |
VE VenusianCTR | Murkel Dellienavg 37.8¢ | $306.95 | $264.15 | -$42.8 | 36% 945-1666 (2611) |
38 38791873984189 | Juan Estevezavg 62¢ | $205.72 | $210.7 | +$4.98 | 48% 3199-3501 (6700) |
 alpheclabs2 | Juan Estevezavg 62¢ | $185.37 | $168.93 | -$16.44 | 45% 281-340 (621) |
FL Flaznorp | Juan Estevezavg 62¢ | $155.62 | $158.13 | +$2.51 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Juan Estevezavg 62¢ | $123.2 | $125.19 | +$1.99 | 50% 2506-2466 (4972) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Murkel Dellienavg 38¢ | $60.71 | $51.92 | -$8.79 | 37% 957-1658 (2615) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Murkel Dellienavg 39¢ | $7.8 | $8.7 | +$0.9 | 37% 966-1630 (2596) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | Murkel Dellienavg 44¢ | $2.99 | $2.95 | -$0.03 | 45% 159-195 (354) |
poshposhInvested
$372
Value
$378
PnL
+$6
Record
48%
1095-1172 (2267)
Invested
$310.93
Value
$315.02
PnL
+$4.09
Record
36%
928-1642 (2570)
Invested
$306.95
Value
$264.15
PnL
-$42.8
Record
36%
945-1666 (2611)
Invested
$205.72
Value
$210.7
PnL
+$4.98
Record
48%
3199-3501 (6700)
alpheclabs2Invested
$185.37
Value
$168.93
PnL
-$16.44
Record
45%
281-340 (621)
Invested
$155.62
Value
$158.13
PnL
+$2.51
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Invested
$123.2
Value
$125.19
PnL
+$1.99
Record
50%
2506-2466 (4972)
Invested
$60.71
Value
$51.92
PnL
-$8.79
Record
37%
957-1658 (2615)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$8.7
PnL
+$0.9
Record
37%
966-1630 (2596)
Invested
$2.99
Value
$2.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
45%
159-195 (354)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
poshposh
Juan Estevez — $378
Limousin
CTRMurkel Dellien — $315.02
Venusian
CTRMurkel Dellien — $264.15
38791873984189
Juan Estevez — $210.7
alpheclabs2
Juan Estevez — $168.93
Flaznorp
Juan Estevez — $158.13
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Juan Estevez — $125.19
LightParadox
CTRMurkel Dellien — $51.92
MadridTime
CTRMurkel Dellien — $8.7
glennyorkshire
CTRMurkel Dellien — $2.95