Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pavlos Tsitsipas, while the market favors Melios Efstathiou (100%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Heraklion: Melios Efstathiou vs Pavlos Tsitsipas

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Pavlos Tsitsipas (42%) · Pavlos Tsitsipas at 0.1¢ · $900 held · ends Nov 11

Melios Efstathiou>99¢Pavlos Tsitsipas<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Consensus Traders

Pavlos Tsitsipas 42%

Total Value

$900.21

Combined PnL

-$190.04

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPavlos Tsitsipas at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pavlos Tsitsipas

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Melios Efstathiou 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Melios Efstathiou100%

Pavlos Tsitsipas0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pavlos Tsitsipas5 traders

Total Value$474.68

Total Shares1,064

Combined PnL-$298.45

Melios Efstathiou7 traders

Total Value$425.53

Total Shares427

Combined PnL+$108.41

Pavlos Tsitsipas — 42%Melios Efstathiou — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pavlos Tsitsipasavg 53.6¢	$686.76	$456.12	-$230.64	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
CI cigarettes	Melios Efstathiouavg 73.7¢	$110.5	$149.33	+$38.83	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
LR lryyy<$100	Melios Efstathiouavg 82¢	$72.16	$87.6	+$15.44	47% 9215-10335 (19550)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Melios Efstathiouavg 71¢	$55.04	$77.17	+$22.13	48% 5269-5761 (11030)
poshposh<$100	Melios Efstathiouavg 85¢	$44.74	$44.91	+$0.18	57% 12255-9317 (21572)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Melios Efstathiouavg 48.6¢	$13.03	$26.68	+$13.65	46% 1383-1634 (3017)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Melios Efstathiouavg 35.6¢	$11.04	$19.95	+$8.92	59% 31848-22485 (54333)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Melios Efstathiouavg 34.7¢	$10.72	$19.89	+$9.27	51% 11897-11293 (23190)
RN1CTR<$100	Pavlos Tsitsipasavg 40¢	$64.15	$10.57	-$53.58	53% 60045-52422 (112467)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Pavlos Tsitsipasavg 33¢	$9	$5.09	-$3.91	47% 11065-12394 (23459)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Pavlos Tsitsipasavg 60.7¢	$9.47	$2.81	-$6.66	82% 7003-1508 (8511)
US User7429CTR<$100	Pavlos Tsitsipasavg 18.7¢	$3.75	$0.09	-$3.66	56% 8920-7126 (16046)

FlaznorpCTR

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Invested

$686.76

Value

$456.12

PnL

-$230.64

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

cigarettes

Melios Efstathiou

Invested

$110.5

Value

$149.33

PnL

+$38.83

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

lryyy<$100

Melios Efstathiou

Invested

$72.16

Value

$87.6

PnL

+$15.44

Record

47%

9215-10335 (19550)

SlickRick123<$100

Melios Efstathiou

Invested

$55.04

Value

$77.17

PnL

+$22.13

Record

48%

5269-5761 (11030)

poshposh<$100

Melios Efstathiou

Invested

$44.74

Value

$44.91

PnL

+$0.18

Record

57%

12255-9317 (21572)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Melios Efstathiou

Invested

$13.03

Value

$26.68

PnL

+$13.65

Record

46%

1383-1634 (3017)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Melios Efstathiou

Invested

$11.04

Value

$19.95

PnL

+$8.92

Record

59%

31848-22485 (54333)

iWasEnough<$100

Melios Efstathiou

Invested

$10.72

Value

$19.89

PnL

+$9.27

Record

51%

11897-11293 (23190)

RN1CTR<$100

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Invested

$64.15

Value

$10.57

PnL

-$53.58

Record

53%

60045-52422 (112467)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Invested

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$3.91

Record

47%

11065-12394 (23459)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Invested

$9.47

Value

$2.81

PnL

-$6.66

Record

82%

7003-1508 (8511)

User7429CTR<$100

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Invested

$3.75

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$3.66

Record

56%

8920-7126 (16046)

Research grade

AvoidPavlos Tsitsipas at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Pavlos Tsitsipas

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Melios Efstathiou 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pavlos Tsitsipas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.