M25 Heraklion: Melios Efstathiou vs Pablo Perez Ramos
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Melios Efstathiou (80%) · Melios Efstathiou at 100¢ · $616 held · ends Nov 12
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Neutral
Melios Efstathiou
5
Melios Efstathiou 80%
$616.26
$48.93
69.7¢ → 100¢
+43% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralMelios Efstathiou at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Melios Efstathiouavg 89.4¢ | $271.85 | $226.55 | -$45.3 | 53% 60992-53371 (114363) |
FL Flaznorp | Melios Efstathiouavg 59.3¢ | $154.72 | $221.8 | +$67.07 | 51% 25630-24353 (49983) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Pablo Perez Ramosavg 40.3¢ | $75.53 | $98.49 | +$22.95 | 50% 21108-21355 (42463) |
 poshposh<$100 | Melios Efstathiouavg 44.6¢ | $62.92 | $67.05 | +$4.13 | 57% 12652-9733 (22385) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Melios Efstathiouavg 46.2¢ | $2.31 | $2.38 | +$0.06 | 59% 32545-22946 (55491) |
RN1Invested
$271.85
Value
$226.55
PnL
-$45.3
Record
53%
60992-53371 (114363)
Invested
$154.72
Value
$221.8
PnL
+$67.07
Record
51%
25630-24353 (49983)
Invested
$75.53
Value
$98.49
PnL
+$22.95
Record
50%
21108-21355 (42463)
poshposh<$100Invested
$62.92
Value
$67.05
PnL
+$4.13
Record
57%
12652-9733 (22385)
Invested
$2.31
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$0.06
Record
59%
32545-22946 (55491)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.