Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Madison Frahn, while the market favors Florentine Dekkers (100%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W15 Paris: Florentine Dekkers vs Madison Frahn

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Madison Frahn (45%) · Madison Frahn at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Florentine Dekkers>99¢Madison Frahn<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Madison Frahn

Consensus Traders

Madison Frahn 45%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$100.36

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMadison Frahn at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Madison Frahn

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Florentine Dekkers 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Florentine Dekkers100%

Madison Frahn0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Madison Frahn5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,437

Combined PnL-$14.07

Florentine Dekkers6 traders

Total Value$298.82

Total Shares304

Combined PnL+$114.43

Madison Frahn — 45%Florentine Dekkers — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Madison Frahn. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFlorentine Dekkers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMadison Frahn 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Florentine Dekkers 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Madison Frahnavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$2.84	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Florentine Dekkersavg 16¢	$14.62	$88.36	+$73.74	46% 486-574 (1060)
dips.<$100	Florentine Dekkersavg 63¢	$54.81	$86.96	+$32.15	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Florentine Dekkersavg 96.7¢	$71.58	$73.96	+$2.38	99% 667-9 (676)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Florentine Dekkersavg 99.9¢	$37.43	$36.24	-$1.19	38% 3843-6310 (10153)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Florentine Dekkersavg 48¢	$5.35	$10.78	+$5.43	46% 653-760 (1413)
38 38791873984189CTR	Madison Frahnavg 33.5¢	$213.36	$8.72	+$84.2	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
poshposhCTR<$100	Madison Frahnavg 28.7¢	$35.62	$4.06	-$31.56	49% 1349-1428 (2777)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Madison Frahnavg 67¢	$67	$3	-$64	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Florentine Dekkersavg 23¢	$0.6	$2.51	+$1.92	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Madison Frahnavg 3¢	$1.32	$1.44	+$0.12	46% 998-1194 (2192)

NotJumpCTR

Madison Frahn

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$2.84

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Florentine Dekkers

Invested

$14.62

Value

$88.36

PnL

+$73.74

Record

46%

486-574 (1060)

dips.<$100

Florentine Dekkers

Invested

$54.81

Value

$86.96

PnL

+$32.15

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Florentine Dekkers

Invested

$71.58

Value

$73.96

PnL

+$2.38

Record

99%

667-9 (676)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Florentine Dekkers

Invested

$37.43

Value

$36.24

PnL

-$1.19

Record

38%

3843-6310 (10153)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Florentine Dekkers

Invested

$5.35

Value

$10.78

PnL

+$5.43

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

38791873984189CTR

Madison Frahn

Invested

$213.36

Value

$8.72

PnL

+$84.2

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

poshposhCTR<$100

Madison Frahn

Invested

$35.62

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$31.56

Record

49%

1349-1428 (2777)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Madison Frahn

Invested

$67

Value

PnL

-$64

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

topdogbigboi<$100

Florentine Dekkers

Invested

$0.6

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$1.92

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

lryyyCTR<$100

Madison Frahn

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.12

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

Research grade

AvoidMadison Frahn at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Madison Frahn

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Florentine Dekkers 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Madison Frahn. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFlorentine Dekkers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMadison Frahn 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Florentine Dekkers 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Madison Frahn wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.